Chiefs Betting Preview 2023: Futures Picks & Predictions for Kansas City
Welcome to our Kansas City Chiefs betting preview for the 2023 season. In it, we identify markets to target when betting on the Chiefs as they look to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Here are our Chiefs futures picks, based on the latest NFL futures odds from the best NFL betting sites.
The Kansas City Chiefs are one of my favorite teams to bet on both in-play and in the futures markets. As the defending Super Bowl champions, there's little value to be found in their Super Bowl odds, but not to worry, there are many other avenues to take advantage of when rooting on Patrick Mahomes and Co.
Some examples include the NFL win totals market and the highest-scoring team prop.
Here is our 2023 Kansas City Chiefs betting preview based on the odds from ourbest NFL betting sites (pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Chiefs betting preview 2023
Chiefs to win Over 11.5 games (-132 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
The Chiefs have won at least 12 games in five consecutive seasons, but there's reason for pessimism entering 2023. They lost several key players to free agency (Frank Clark, Orlando Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, etc.), and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy left to join the Washington Commanders.
But these are the Chiefs we're talking about. They're the modern day New England Patriots and the measuring stick for the rest of the NFL. Matt Nagy will transition seamlessly into the OC role and no team is better suited to overcome key departures. They lost star receiver Tyreek Hill last offseason and went on to win the Super Bowl.
As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, I'm comfortable taking the Over on wins.
Chiefs to win AFC West (-160 via FanDuel, Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
K.C. has won the AFC West every year since 2016. They're again the class of the division, but they should be challenged by the Los Angeles Chargers and improved Denver Broncos.
Nonetheless, if you're comfortable swallowing the considerable juice, the Chiefs should be a safe bet to win their division. They'll face stiffer tests to win the conference and Super Bowl and may not be worth the investment at such short odds.
Chiefs Over 4.5 wins in division (+120 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
We've touched on the Chiefs' dominance of the AFC West, but there are further opportunities to take advantage of K.C.'s ownership of the division.
The benefit of the Over/Under line on division wins sitting at 4.5 is that Kansas City can lose one division matchup and the Over can still cash. The Chiefs swept their division in 2022 and lost one of their six divisional matchups in 2021.
They lost two intradivision battles in 2020, but one was a regular-season finale started by backup quarterback Chad Henne. The Chiefs finished with a 14-2 record that year.
Chiefs 1+ pass TD in each regular-season game (+300 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mahomes accomplished this feat last season. He also did so in 2020, and though he missed the final regular-season game that year, Chad Henne stepped in and tossed a couple of touchdown passes.
As long as Mahomes is healthy (and injuries are baked into the odds), this prop is always within reach.
This same bet is +250 at DraftKings.
Chiefs to start the regular season 5-0: Yes (+500 via DraftKings, BetMGM) ⭐⭐
The defending champs will open the season at home against the upstart Detroit Lions. They're already heavy -285 favorites to win the opener, then they'll have nine days of rest before facing the Jacksonville Jaguars.
From there, the Chiefs play the Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and Minnesota Vikings. The Jets represent the stiffest challenge amongst that group. The Chiefs starting the year at 5-0 is worth a bet at 5/1 odds. They haven't accomplished the feat since 2018, but their schedule is backloaded this season.
Here are our best NFL betting sites:
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