Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat Prediction, Preview, and Odds

Cleveland beat Orlando by ten at home in its last game, as the Magic were ice cold from long range (2-for-23). The Cavaliers shot 53.5 percent overall, including 14-for-34 (41.2%) from deep. They also won the rebounding battle 45-36. Cleveland led by as many as 23 points and never trailed.

SG Donovan Mitchell paces the Cavs with 27.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. A few other key contributors are PG Darius Garland (19.7 PPG and 6.1 APG), PF Evan Mobley (16.0 PPG and 10.5 RPG), and SG Max Strus (14.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 4.1 APG).

Cleveland scores 111.3 points per game (23rd) and shoots 48.0 percent (9th), including 34.7 percent from three-point range (23rd). It converts 78.3 percent of its free throws (17th) and averages 44.3 rebounds per game (13th). The Cavaliers' opponents score 111.1 points per game (8th) and shoot 45.5 percent (7th), including 36.1 percent from deep (10th), with 43.9 rebounds per game (14th).

Cleveland ranks 18th in offensive rating, 3rd in defensive rating, and 17th in pace, per Dunks and Threes.

Miami was victorious on the road in its last game, outlasting Toronto in the second half. The Heat held the Raptors to 37 points after halftime, helping the visitors pull away. Miami took care of the basketball and outscored Toronto in the paint.

The Heat will be without their leading scorer, Tyler Herro (22.9 PPG), on Friday and Bam Adebayo (22.3 PPG and 9.9 RPG) is questionable, as well. Miami will depend on contributions from SF Jimmy Butler (22.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, and 4.2 APG), F Duncan Robinson (15.0 PPG), and G Jaime Jaquez Jr. (12.1 PPG).

The Heat average 113.0 points per game (17th) and shoot 47.2 percent (14th), including 38.5 percent from long distance (5th). They shoot 84.5 percent at the free-throw line (3rd) and average 40.9 rebounds per game (27th). Their opponents score 111.6 points per game (11th) and shoot 48.5 percent (22nd), including 37.8 percent from deep (26th), with 42.7 rebounds per game (8th).

Miami is ranked 15th in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating, and 24th in pace, per Dunks and Threes.

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Miami managed 129 points in the first meeting between these teams in November, but that shouldn't be the case on Friday. That was tied for Miami's second-highest scoring performance of the season, as they were lights out (57%) from three, especially Kyle Lowry (7-for-10). In tomorrow's rematch, expect the Cavaliers to be locked in defensively at the three-point line.

As long as Cleveland plays to its strengths defensively, I don't expect it to need to score too much to pick up the road victory. The Heat held the Cavs under 100 points in the first matchup and rank 10th overall in schedule-adjusted defensive rating. Cleveland also does not shoot the ball efficiently from deep (23rd).