Club America vs Puebla Odds, Prediction, Picks

Club America vs Puebla Predictions

Club America take on Puebla this week. As the odds table suggests, Club America go into this tie as overwhelming favorites, but that doesn’t mean Puebla can’t get something from this match. Club America lost their first match of the season against an ordinary Juarez side, showing that anything is possible in Liga MX. More significantly, for Puebla, Club America lost their first match of the season at home. 

Despite all that, we doubt Club America will falter twice so early in the season. They’ve got far too much quality in the team to lose two matches to two fairly ordinary teams at home on the bounce; the loss to Juarez was a good wake-up call for Club America. Puebla, on the other hand, haven’t displayed anything in their two games to suggest an upset is on the cards. It’s best to go with the safe pick here. 

Club America have a tremendously superior head-to-head record against Puebla: 17 wins, nine draws, and two losses. However, the last meeting between the two sides – earlier this year – ended in a 2-2 draw. Club America were the home side and went up in the 38th minute via Henry Martin. 

Puebla got one back in the 60th minute through Gaston Silva before Alejandro Zendejas put Club America in the driving seat seven minutes later. Puebla didn’t give up and leveled the scores for the second time in the 75th minute through Emanuel Gularte. 

Club America kept going for the winner, but it was to no avail. The home side took 19 shots to Puebla’s eight and had 66% of the possession but lacked the killer edge in this tie. Puebla will certainly take some heart from that performance in the upcoming. 

Club America Start Season With Surprise Loss

Club America’s 2-1 loss to Juarez was one of the big stories of the first week of the 2023 Liga MX Apertura season. Not to mention, the manner of the loss was also quite dramatic. Club America took an early lead through Leonardo Suarez (15’). Despite not capitalizing on this, they looked comfortable for most of the game; it looked like they were going to leave the Azteca with three points. 

However, Juarez had other ideas. Aitor Garcia scored an equalizer in the 86th minute against the run of play. This gave Juarez some momentum and rattled Club America. In fact, it rattled the home team so much that they conceded another goal in stoppage time to Angel Zapata. It was a remarkable game of soccer and a timely reminder that a game isn’t over till the referee blows the final whistle. 

Club America took 14 shots to Juarez’s eight and had 62% of the possession, but they left with nothing. In many ways, it sums up some of the problems Club America have faced in recent years: they’re often the better team but lose focus during the most important moments. 

Club America Keep Failing at the Final Hurdle

Club America got knocked out in the semifinals for the second time running last season, despite winning the first leg. Club America spent more time trying to antagonize Guadalajara over the two semifinal legs instead of focusing on their own game and were punished for the same. 

It was surprising to see Club America approach the semifinals in this manner, as they’ve always been a team that takes the initiative. It seems like they backtracked on this approach because of some recent disappointments in similar big-game ties, but the conservative approach didn’t work, either. 

Knockout ties tend to have some luck involved, and it seems like Club America haven’t had the rub of the green in recent years despite being the most consistent league team for the last half a decade. They’ve got the history, squad, manager, stadium, and every other factor on their side, so the problem looks more psychological than physical, tactical, or technical. 

Their underlying numbers were the second-best last season, so there’s no doubt that they’re still performing well; it’s just a matter of getting over those fine margins. 

Puebla Lose 2-3 to Santos Laguna  

Puebla lost their first match of the season to Santos Laguna over the weekend. They got off the perfect start, as Federico Mancuello put them up within two minutes. Laguna’s Harold Preciado, however, gave them problems all evening and leveled the scores in the 26th minute. 

Brayan Angulo gave Puebla the lead for the second time in the match 12 minutes after Preciado’s equalizer, but Preciado got his second of the evening just before the half-time whistle. Things were tight for most of the second half before Juan Brunetta’s 77th-minute strike gave Santos Laguna the lead for the first time in the match. In the end, Laguna held on to get all three points. 

This was a fantastic match, with both sides going for the win. Puebla took 24 shots to Santos Laguna’s 22, which sums things up. Puebla had 61% of the possession; they’ll be disappointed they didn’t get a point at the very least. 

As strong as they looked in the attacking department, the defensive performance will be a big worry. If they approach the match against Club America in the same fashion, they could be on the receiving end of a mauling. 

Puebla’s Defensive Issues Go Back to Last Season

Only two teams conceded more than Puebla’s 32 goals in the league last season, and it doesn’t look like they’ve found a solution to their porous defense this season. This is also reflected in the underlying numbers, with only three teams having a lower expected goal against value than their 50.5 when looking at the Apertura and Clausura seasons combined. 

Not only does the backline have to improve, but the rest of the team must also work much harder defensively. Club America are a far more dangerous side going forward than Santos Laguna, and they’re playing at home; if every player in the team doesn’t put in maximum defensive effort, it won’t come as a surprise if they conceded three or more goals again.