College Basketball: 10 mid-major teams who could spoil NCAA Tournament

The 2024 NCAA Tournament is still a few months away, and while nothing is ever guaranteed in March it is safe to expect at least a handful of upsets – hence the term March Madness.

Mid-Major programs have so often made a name for themselves thanks to a few wins in the Big Dance, and while most programs (outside of Gonzaga) fail to maintain the success year-to-year, it is always fun to see the little guy succeed.

Last year’s Final 4 run from Florida Atlantic is the latest big time Cinderella story, and they are one of many mid-major teams who will look to take down a Power-6 program this March.

Below is a ranking of ten programs who look ripe to make headlines with a potential Sweet 16 run in 2024, and maybe even pull an FAU and go all the way to the Final 4.

Conference: Sun Belt

Record: 13-0

Next Game: January 4 at Louisiana

James Madison is one of three remaining undefeated programs in college hoops, pulling off upsets against Michigan State and Kent State in the first week of the season and coasting from there.

Behind strong play from T.J Bickerstaff and Terrence Edwards the Dukes are one of the most electric mid-major programs in the country, and will be a tournament team no one wants to face in March.

Conference: WAC

Record: 12-1

Next Game: January 4 at Southern Utah

Grand Canyon has long been considered a sleeping giant in the WAC, with a significant fan base and strong coaching from Bryce Drew. This year they are up to 12-1 with quality wins over San Diego State, San Francisco, and fellow mid-major darling Liberty.

Led by DePaul transfer Tyon Grant-Foster, who is averaging 20.2 points per game, the Lopes are hell bent on winning their first ever NCAA Tournament game and this feels like the year for it.

Conference: Ivy

Record: 12-1

Next Game: January 6 vs. Harvard

Unlike Grand Canyon, Princeton is fresh off a pair of big wins in the NCAA Tournament over No. 2 seed Arizona and No. 7 Missouri, but they are certainly not a flash in the pan.

Coach Mitch Henderson led the Tigers to 23 win seasons in each of the past two years, and they are off to a 12-1 start with wins over Rutgers, Hofstra, and Duquesne.

Conference: 11-2

Record: Missouri Valley

Next Game: January 3 vs. Evansville

Indiana State is one of three 10+ win teams in the highly competitive Missouri Valley Conference, and they are one of the highest scoring teams in the country – averaging a hair over 87 points per game.

With five players in double figures, led by Isaiah Swope’s 19.6 points, this team can outscore just about anyone in college basketball – and it’s safe to say no one will want to face a team shooting over 41% from three in the Big Dance.

Conference: Southland

Record: 11-2

Next Game: January 6 at Texas A&M Commerce

Will Wade has already helped turn things around at McNeese in Year 1, with a recent victory on the road at Michigan a signature win that proves this team is a real danger come March.

The Cowboys are averaging about 81 points per game on 39% from three, and former TCU guard Shahada Wells is thriving with averages of 19.4 points, 5.0 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.7 steals per game.

Veteran guard leadership, strong outside shooting, a highly regarded coach, and strong non-conference wins? Yeah this team is ready to bust some brackets in March.

Conference: Sun Belt

Record: 10-3

Next Game: January 4 at South Alabama

James Madison is the clear favorite to win the Sun Belt, but if App State is able to pull off an upset in the Sun Belt Tournament they could have two teams going dancing, and both will have the potential to pull off a big upset.

App State has a major win over Auburn and is a top-75 defensive team in the country, and are not only a potential March Madness darling but the only team likely to end James Madison’s undefeated season before the tournament.

Conference: CUSA

Record: 11-4

Next Game: January 6 at Western Kentucky

A four loss Liberty team may seem high on this list, but the losses are against Alabama, on the road at Florida Atlantic, and against a pair of fellow mid-major darlings; Grand Canyon and Charleston.

The Flames take great care of the basketball and have a balanced scoring attack, with five players averaging between 8.7 and 13.2 points – led by do it all forward Kyle Rode.

Conference: Missouri Valley

Record: 11-2

Next Game: January 2 vs. Illinois State

Indiana State and Drake are unlikely to both make the NCAA Tournament, which is why the Bulldogs are a little lower on this list – but if they do manage to beat Indiana State and steal the autobid from the MVC, they won’t be a team any of the big boys want to face.

Why? Well it starts with Tucker DeVries, the team’s do it all point guard who is currently averaging 19 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. DeVries is a tough matchup at 6’7, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him etching his name into NCAA Tournament lore by posting a huge game and knocking out a major program in March.

Conference: CAA

Record: 9-4

Next Game: January 4 at Hofstra

The Cougars were a regular season darling last year, but a 1-3 start this season pushed them aside in favor of teams like James Madison and Grand Canyon.

However, since then Charleston is 8-1 with only a road loss to Florida Atlantic, and while they need to improve as an outside shooting team (30.4%) they are well coached and experienced – a solid recipe for postseason success.

Conference: Southern

Record: 11-2

Next Game: January 3 vs. Chattanooga

Samford dropped their first two games of the season, to Purdue and VCU, before rattling off 11 straight wins. Sure the competition hasn’t been great, but this Bulldogs team is shooting 40.1% from three – always a threatening skill to have in March.