College Basketball Best Bets, Jan. 11: Vermont vs UMBC

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down an American East matchup between Vermont and UMBC.

UMBC at Vermont (-16.5): O/U 153.5

UMBC lost six-straight games with four coming by double-digits and now they go to Vermont, who most of you reading this know is a fan favorite of ours the past few seasons.

This UMBC squad only returns 9.5% of minutes from last season (346th) and has an average of 1.02 years of DI experience on its roster (317th). This Retrievers squad is young and while it has a ton of juniors on the team (in class year), they barely played at the previous school.

Going on the road for the first time in conference play versus the reigning champs doesn’t set up well after a 14-point home loss to Bryant to start American East play.

UMBC has one of the 10 easiest strengths of schedules thus far and they are 5-11 with seven double-digit losses and the 356th-ranked defense overall. Fade them.

Vermont struggled from three (3/17) and the free-throw line (12/19) in its American East home opener versus Maine, but the Black Bears boast a much better defense than the Retrievers and a similar tempo to the Catamounts.

This is a game Vermont can control on both sides of the floor. Take Vermont -16.5 at -110 odds out to -18. This spread should be -19.5.

Pick: Vermont -16.5 (1u)

Season Record: 16-9 (64%) +5.68u

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