College football 2023 season preview: Could-be contenders and possible pretenders edition

With regard to most team sports, predicting success in any given season can be difficult. College football, on the other hand, is one of the easier sports when it comes to predicting top contenders, particularly because certain schools hold annual recruiting advantages. Sure, a team can come out of nowhere to make an unexpected run, like TCU did a season ago, and make it all the way to the College Football Playoff National Championship game. However, miraculous runs by party-crashing programs are rare.

Since the College Football Playoff was introduced in 2014, only five programs have won more than two games in the format — Alabama (13), Clemson (10), Ohio State (7), Georgia (6) and Oklahoma (4). Below are could-be contenders, possible pretenders and fringe teams that could play for college football’s ultimate prize.

Could-be contenders

Georgia

The defending, back-to-back national champions have earned the right to be analyzed first, as the Georgia Bulldogs will attempt to become the first team since the AP poll was introduced in 1936 to win three straight national titles. Georgia won’t have Heisman Finalist Stetson Bennett behind center this season, as the Los Angeles Rams selected the clutch quarterback in the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Bennett’s backup from a season ago, redshirt sophomore Carson Beck, will be the starter when the Dawgs’ season opens on Sept 2.

Last season, Beck mostly played in the waning minutes games that Georgia had blown out its opponents. In six appearances, he completed 26 of his 35 attempts for 310 yards, four touchdowns and zero interceptions. If he can continue his promising play, the Bulldogs may be hoisting the College Football Playoff National Championship Trophy for a third straight year.

Not only will Beck have stud tight end Brock Bowers back in the fold, the team should be aided by what seems to be one of the easiest schedules in the nation. Only two teams on Georgia’s upcoming schedule finished in the AP Top 25 last season — South Carolina (23rd) and Tennessee (6th). The Bulldogs’ marshmallowy 2023 schedule also begins with four home games against powerhouses UT Martin, Ball State, South Carolina and UAB.

Michigan

Michigan finished last season with a 13-1 record, winning more games in 2022 than any other season in program history. However, the Wolverines’ season ended with a painful 51-45 loss to underdog TCU in the semifinals of the College Football Playoff. The Horned Frogs dropping 51 points on Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl was undoubtedly surprising, as the Wolverines had allowed only 13.3 points per game to opponents en route to their 13-0 start. Likely using the loss to TCU as motivation, junior quarterback J.J. McCarthy and the Wolverines are hoping to make it one step further this season.

Speaking of McCarthy, he provides the Wolverines with experience and optimism. A key to becoming a legendary Michigan quarterback is by beating rival Ohio State, and McCarthy is already 2-0 against the hated Buckeyes. Entering his third season in Ann Arbor, McCarthy could cement his place as one of the greatest quarterbacks in the history of the program if he defeats Ohio State for a third time and wins the national championship. An extremely favorable regular season schedule and plenty of surrounding talent should make accomplishing those goals a reasonable possibility.

USC

Previously on the plains of Oklahoma, Lincoln Riley planted his feet in Southern California and accepted the head coaching job at USC before the start of last season. Considering the Trojans went 4-8 the season before Riley agreed to become USC’s head coach, his first season in Los Angeles has to be considered a significant step in the right direction for the program. The Trojans finished the 2022 season with an 11-3 record, two of those losses coming by a single point. Two of those losses also came to conference foe Utah, which has won the last two Pac-12 titles. In all three of the losses, USC allowed at least 43 points.

The Trojans defense has to get better this season if USC wants to win a Pac-12 title, let alone compete for a berth in the College Football Playoff. Riley’s defense allowed 27.9 points per game last season, which ranked 81st in the nation. Some of USC’s wins could have gone the other way if not for its high-powered offense, led by star quarterback Caleb Williams. This will likely be Williams’ last season at the collegiate level, so Riley and the Trojans would be best-suited to maximize the junior quarterback’s talents before he departs for the NFL.

If the Trojans defense can improve enough to keep the team out of weekly shootouts, USC could earn a spot in the College Football Playoff.

Possible Pretenders

Florida state

No team with two or more losses has ever been selected to the College Football Playoff (that will likely change in 2024 with playoff expansion). As for the Seminoles, Florida State has lost at least three games every season since 2014, when Jimbo Fisher still held head coaching duties. Fourth-year Seminoles head coach Mike Norvell led Florida State to a 10-3 record a season ago, his best outing after finishing below .500 in his first two seasons in Tallahassee. The Seminoles will know what their potential is early, as they’ll face two top-10 teams in their first four games.

LSU

The Tigers will enter this season ranked No. 5 in the initial AP Top 25 poll despite losing four games last year, including a 27-point home loss to Tennessee, a 15-point loss at Texas A&M (keep in mind the Aggies finished last season with a 5-7 record) and a 20-point loss to eventual national champion Georgia. Until the Tigers eliminate these types of lopsided losses, it’s difficult to see them legitimately competing for a playoff spot this season. LSU and Florida State will meet in Week 1 of the season, so one of these teams will likely be eliminated from playoff contention early.

Fringe

Ohio State, Alabama, Tennessee, Penn State

Each of these teams have a glaring question mark at the sport’s most important position. Former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud now plays for the Houston Texans, and it’s still unclear whether junior signal-caller Kyle McCord or sophomore quarterback Devin Brown will get the first opportunity behind center in 2023. Alabama no longer has the services of No. 1 overall NFL Draft pick Bryce Young. Redshirt sophomore Jalen Milroe, redshirt freshman Ty Simpson and Notre Dame transfer Tyler Buchner are competing to see who will start the season as QB1 for the Crimson Tide. Joe Milton will take over for Hendon Hooker in Knoxville and attempt to keep the program moving in the right direction, and Penn State will start a new quarterback this season for the first time since 2019. With plenty of surrounding talent at each of these schools, team success will ultimately be determined by how each of their quarterbacks play.