College football bowl game betting preview: Best bets for this week

Bowl season continues this week with a slew of games. Here’s how I think a few of them could play out.

All times Eastern. All spreads and totals taken Monday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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First Responder Bowl

Texas State vs. Rice

Texas State is playing in its first bowl game, while Rice isn’t a team that’s particularly accustomed to the postseason and is making just its seventh bowl appearance since the early 1960s. I think both will celebrate the occasion by scoring a bunch of points.

Even though Owls quarterback JT Daniels announced his retirement after the end of the regular season, Rice should be in good shape with AJ Padgett under center. The Owls pass the ball 57.46 percent of the time (14th in the nation) and should find success against a Bobcats passing defense that ranks 114th nationally in expected points allowed per play. Texas State’s offense is much more balanced and should also be able to move the ball against a middle-of-the-pack Rice defense.

Another reason to think about the over here is that both offenses tend to make the most of their productive drives. Rice’s offense ranks fifth in points per Eckel drive (a drive that results in a first down inside an opponent’s 40-yard line or a big-play touchdown), while Texas State ranks 14th. Both defenses allow plenty of productive drives as well: The Owls are 114th in Eckel rate, and the Bobcats are 122nd.

The pick: over 60.

Texas Bowl

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State

The question isn’t who has left Texas A&M since the end of the regular season. It’s who hasn’t.

The Aggies fired coach Jimbo Fisher after 10 games. Then, after Texas A&M wrapped up a 7-5 regular season, 11 starters left via the transfer portal or opted out to stay healthy for the NFL draft. Among them: starting quarterback Max Johnson, wide receivers Ainias Smith and Evan Stewart (Nos. 1 and 2 on the team in receptions and receiving yards), three starting defensive backs, four from the defensive front seven and two starting offensive linemen. In essence, the Aggies will be fielding a team of mostly backups.

Oklahoma State’s personnel losses — almost entirely backups — are comparatively light. Most importantly, running back Ollie Gordon II announced he would return to Oklahoma State in 2024 after averaging 124.2 rushing yards and scoring 20 touchdowns on the ground (both No. 2 in the country). Overall, Texas A&M was pretty good against the run (No. 4 in success rate), but the Aggies still had a tendency to allow big gains (No. 53 in runs of 10-plus yards allowed), and that was with all those now-departed starters on the field. No running back in the Football Bowl Subdivision had more rushing gains of at least 20 yards than Gordon, who had 19.

The Cowboys are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven bowl games under Coach Mike Gundy, who apparently has found the secret to keeping his team motivated for these games. They’re also 22-10 against the spread in their past 32 games as underdogs since 2016, the fifth-best record in the nation over that span. They should get it done again against depleted Texas A&M.

The pick: Oklahoma State +2

Fenway Bowl

SMU vs. Boston College

On the one hand, Boston College gets to play its bowl game only about four miles up Beacon Street at Fenway Park. On the other hand is … everything else.

SMU is coming off an upset of Tulane in the American Athletic Conference championship game, a game it won without usual starting quarterback Preston Stone, who suffered a season-ending broken leg in the Mustangs’ penultimate game against Navy. Backup Kevin Jennings threw two interceptions against the Green Wave, but SMU’s defense — which has been salty all season — held Tulane to 4.34 yards per play, its second-worst mark of the season.

Jennings should have much more success against a Boston College team that has lost three straight and features one of the worst Power Five defenses in the country, allowing 6.55 yards per play (123rd nationally). The Eagles also will be without three starters in the secondary because of injuries and transfers. Boston College’s rushing attack, led by quarterback Thomas Castellanos, has been able to move the ball, but SMU enters with the eighth-ranked rushing defense in terms of opponent success rate.

To top everything off, Boston College is a six-win team with the statistical résumé of a four-win team. The Eagles beat Holy Cross of the Football Championship Subdivision by just three points Sept. 9, allowing a horrid 7.4 yards per play and only sealing the win when the Crusaders fumbled at the BC 29-yard line with just over a minute left. The Eagles also scored consecutive three-point wins over Virginia (in a game they trailed 21-7 at halftime) and Army (in a game in which they scored the winning touchdown with 25 seconds left). They’re extremely lucky to be bowling.

Apart from Stone and BC’s defensive backs, this is one of the few games on the bowl schedule that does not feature a lot of missing players, and SMU is clearly the better team here. Take the Mustangs.