College football bowl projections: Ole Miss, Tulane jump into New Year's Six games as Oklahoma falls out
Oklahoma has picked a bad time to hit the skids, though there is never really a good time for that. The Sooners lost the final edition of Bedlam at Oklahoma State and subsequently dropped from the New Year's Six lineup.
Ole Miss is now projected to take Oklahoma's place in the Peach Bowl against Penn State. Each of those teams will get a chance to make a case for something bigger next Saturday.
The Rebels travel to Georgia attempting to end the Bulldogs' 26-game winning streak. The Nittany Lions face Michigan in what will be the Wolverines' first real test of the season. It speaks to how big the drop off is between the top three and rest of the Big Ten that we must wait until Nov. 11 for Michigan to get a real test. Of course, Jim Harbaugh's super-soft nonconference schedule contributed to that.
The other change in the New Year's Six came because of a stunning Army upset of previously undefeated Air Force. The Black Knights (3-6) forced six turnovers in the victory. The Falcons are now an unlikely New Year's Six candidate after taking a loss like that, even if they win what is arguably the best of the Group of Five conferences. Tulane becomes the heavy favorite to take that spot, and the Green Wave are projected to the Fiesta Bowl this week.
College Football Playoff
New Year's Six bowl games
There are currently 51 teams that are bowl eligible. That means, in order to fill all of the games, we need 31 more teams to get their sixth win over the last three weeks of the season. That can still happen, though I have 10 teams in this week's bowl projections taking spots due to a lack of eligible teams. History tells us that list will shrink considerably.
Among those who might have difficulty getting to bowl eligibility are Army and Navy. As it has been in recent years, the Army-Navy Game is played a week after conference championship weekend with bowl bids already being awarded. That means they need to attain bowl eligibility in only 11 games.
Navy can still do that. The Midshipmen are 5-5, and a win at SMU next week would get them eligible. However, they will be heavy underdogs in that game. A loss puts Navy at 5-6 and eligible for consideration as a fill-in if it has a good enough APR, but that is not likely this season.
Army is out of luck. The Black Knights already have six losses, so even if they win the next two weeks, the best record they can achieve is 5-6. However, even if they win their next two games, both are against FCS schools, and only one such victory could be counted towards its record for bowl purposes. So, the best record Army can show is 4-6, which means it is already eliminated from bowl season.
Don't see your team? Check out Jerry Palm's bowl projections after Week 10.
