College Football Championship 2024: Odds Critical Matchups in Washington vs. Michigan
The Michigan Wolverines and Washington Huskies love to control games in two different ways.
Michigan would love to put together a handful of double-digit play drives that take seven or eight minutes off the clock.
The Wolverines had to adapt a bit in the Rose Bowl since the Alabama Crimson Tide adjusted to their dominance at the line of scrimmage in the second half.
Jim Harbaugh's team will not go away from that identity in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
A strong rushing attack may actually be the best defense for Michigan to keep Michael Penix Jr. and the Washington passing attack off the field.
Penix produced an incredible Sugar Bowl performance, and if he torches the Michigan secondary like that on Monday in Houston, Washington will come away with the national title.
Spread: Michigan (-4.5)
Over/Under: 55.5
Money Line: Michigan (-185; bet $185 to win $100); Washington (+154; bet $100 to win $154)
Washington's wide receivers had one of the most effective performances you will ever see from the position in the Sugar Bowl.
The Seattle Times' Mike Vorel noted that Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan and Germie Bernard combined for 19 catches on 20 targets, 353 yards and two touchdowns.
The wide receiver quartet did whatever it wanted against the Texas Longhorns secondary, and it will be expected to do the same against Michigan's secondary.
Michigan limited Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe to 116 passing yards in the Rose Bowl. The low total was aided by an incredible pass rush.
The Wolverines can still get a solid pass rush on Washington, but they will also need great coverage to partner that because of Penix's ability to move in the pocket and deliver pinpoint passes.
Penix is the best quarterback Michigan will face all season and no other Wolverines opponent was this deep at wide receiver.
Michigan must scheme up a defensive game plan that slows down all of Washington's pass-catchers, and if does not, it runs the risk of being blown out by Penix's arm.
Michigan's run-first identity will be important to controlling the CFB National Championship.
Washington was on the field for 36 minutes and 20 seconds in the Sugar Bowl. A few stops and turnovers allowed the Huskies to be in control for a majority of the 60 minutes.
Michigan can flip the time of possession stat on Washington if Blake Corum, Donovan Edwards and Co. are effective on the ground.
The Wolverines are masters at putting together long scoring drives, and if that comes to fruition on Monday, Washington will have limited opportunities to score touchdowns.
Washington allowed 180 rushing yards to Texas. Three different Longhorns ran for at least 50 yards and that was without injured starting running back Jonathan Brooks.
Two fumbles and a punt to start the second half set Texas back and forced Quinn Ewers to throw more to pull the Longhorns back into the contest.
Michigan can feed its two primary backs and even have J.J. McCarthy run a few times to test the Washington front seven.
McCarthy will have to complete a few key passes to win the game, but the way Michigan dominates will be through the ground attack.
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