College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 11

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10 November 2023

College Football Free Picks: Weekly Mid-Major Report and Predictions for James Madison Week 11

Welcome to Doc's Sports Mid-Major Report covering the James Madison University Dukes as they roll through the Sunbelt Conference in only their second year at the FBS level. We will thoroughly analyze the Dukes' upcoming opponent each week and explore how we see the game playing out. Using local newspapers and inside sources for the analysis and Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System," we give you the tools to maximize your investment in this exciting Mid-Major program.

At the start of the season, 133 FBS programs started with a clean slate and dreams of a perfect season. As the late summer rays gave way to the autumn foliage, these perfect seasons started falling away like the fall leaves from the tree. In week 11, seven of those FBS teams are still living their dreams of perfection. When Ohio State takes on Michigan in two weeks, one of those squads will be handed their first loss.

The James Madison Dukes, in only their second season at the FBS level, are part of this exclusive late-season fraternity of excellence after their absolute demolition of Georgia State 42-14. In what was supposed to be their most formidable challenge yet, the Dukes dispatched the 6-3 Panthers by playing their most complete game of the season.

This week, the Dukes face their final non-conference opponent when they welcome the independent 1-8 Connecticut Huskies at Bridgeforth Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:00 PM and will be televised on ESPN+.

The Dukes' football team isn't the only big show on campus. On the opening day of college basketball, James Madison's men entered East Lansing and upset No. 4 Michigan State 79-76 in OT.

Fear the Dukes!

Connecticut Offense

There are many reasons that UConn is 1-8, and an offense that is 125th in the nation in scoring (17.9 ppg) is just one of them. They generate 309.2 yards per game, with 185.4 coming through the air. Their starting QB, junior Ta'Quan Roberson, is a transfer from Penn State, and to say that he has struggled this season would be quite an understatement. He's 139-239 (58.2%) for 1,493, 8 TDs and 5 INTs. Their rushing attack is just as anemic as their aerial assault. The Huskies' leading rusher, sophomore Victor Rosa, has gained 401 yards on 84 carries for a respectable 4.8 yards per carry and two touchdowns. You know there are problems when your leading scorer is a defensive lineman. UConn has a short-yardage package featuring junior defensive tackle Jelani Stafford, who has 13 rushes for 22 yards and SIX touchdowns.

Connecticut Defense

It is difficult to win many games when you're defense allows two more touchdowns a game than your offense scores. Unfortunately, that is precisely the situation the Huskies find themselves in, as their defense is giving up 32.6 points per game. Opposing offenses are gaining 431.8 yards a game, with 252.6 coming through the air. They have surrendered 30 or more points in over half of their games, and the lowest points allowed was 21 against Boston College. Even in their lone win, they gave up 31 points in a 38-31 victory against Rice. UConn and JMU have two common opponents, Georgia State and Utah State. The Huskies lost to the Panthers 35-14 and the Aggies 34-33. The Dukes hung 40+ points on both teams, so this one could get ugly.

James Madison Offense

Dukes' QB Jordan McCloud has established himself as an explosive dual-threat quarterback. Against a Panther defense averaging 118 yards on the ground, McCloud scrambled for 104 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries. Tack that onto the 307 yards and four touchdowns passing, and you have one helluva game for total offense. Running back Ty Son Lawton added 95 yards rushing, and JMU combined for 260 yards on the ground. For the season, the Dukes are averaging 33.2 points per game, which is good enough for 29th in the nation. Only twice this season have they failed to score 30 or more points in a contest.

James Madison Defense

While the victory against Georgia State was great, the defense suffered an enormous loss when star defensive lineman Jalen Green sustained a significant knee injury. Green, who leads the nation in sacks and tackles for losses, will have surgery and miss the rest of the season. This loss mars an otherwise outstanding performance by the Dukes' stop unit. They held the Panthers to just 228 yards of total offense, almost 200 yards less than their season average of 415. Panther's running Marcus Carroll, who came into the game as the nation's second-leading rusher with 1,060 yards, could only muster 33 yards on 13 carries. Georgia State QB Darren Grainger did more damage on the ground (103 yards and 2 TDs) than he did through the air (82 yards and no scores).

Analysis and Prediction

The line in this game has had an interesting history. It opened at JMU -27/47.5 and has since moved to JMU -24.5/48. 83% of the wagers have come in on the Dukes, yet 90% of the money has come in on UConn. This action indicates some big bettors don't believe James Madison can cover such a large number. While this is a large number, all indications show that the Dukes can definitely cover. In their short history as a lined team, they are 2-1 ATS in games where they are favored by three or more touchdowns. The common opponents of the two teams both scored 33+ points against the Huskies, which bodes well for the high-powered JMU offense. Finally, there is motivation. The NCAA is considering a motion submitted by James Madison to repeal the two-season transition period from FCS to FBS. If granted this relief, the Dukes would automatically bowl eligible and allow them to play for the Sun Belt conference. JMU wins in a rout but gives up a touchdown or two to put the game over.