College Football Futures Specials: Notre Dame, Indiana and Purdue

The online BetMGM Sportsbook is currently offering four alternate line specials focused on college footballin the state of Indiana: 

• Notre Dame to win the National Championship: +3000
• Notre Dame to win 9+games: -110
• Indiana to win 4+ games: -130
• Purdue to win 6+ games: +120

Should you bet or pass on each of these alternate lines?

Notre Dame to win the National Championship: +3000 

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish enter Marcus Freeman’s second season as the head coach in South Bend with a new offensive coordinator (Gerad Parker) and a new starting quarterback (Sam Hartman from Wake Forest), plus a terrific offensive line and strong stable of running backs. The primary issue on offense is who the Fighting Irish can find to catch passes. Michael Mayer’s departure to the NFL is a hole Notre Dame likely cannot fill and there is no proven weapon at wide receiver.

On defense, the Irish lost three starters on the defensive line and had to rebuild the secondary. The teams contending for national titles have dominant D-lines, and Notre Dame does not have the horses up front to become a top-end line.

The schedule is demanding with a trip to Clemson, home games against USC and Ohio State and several other potentially challenging contests that could derail a playoff bid. The odds are long, but Notre Dame does not have the blue-chip talent necessary to think a national title is actually possible in 2023.

Verdict: Pass

Notre Dame to win 9+ Games: -110

This alternative line requires Notre Dame to win and go 9-3 or better to cash in on your bet. The bettor is paying a bit of juice at -110, but that’s not bad value at all. There are three marquee games on the Fighting Irish schedule: at Clemson, versus USC and versus Ohio State. The Fighting Irish might very well be underdogs in all three contests. In a worst-case scenario, Notre Dame goes 0-3 in those games. That’s not likely, as Sam Hartman is a terrific quarterback.

The Irish have recruited at a high level (although not at a National Championship level just yet), have a solid offensive line and have enough talent on defense to think they could be strong on that side of the ball. If they can knock off USC or Ohio State at home, you have some wiggle room in this bet, but even in a worst-case scenario, Notre Dame would need to lose one more game not to cash the bet.

The games you would consider the Irish to be firm favorites are Navy, Tennessee State, Central Michigan and Pitt. Games at North Carolina State, at Duke and at Louisville are dangerous and need to be analyzed further to feel good about things. North Carolina State and Duke have a season win total projections of 6.5 and are considered lower-end bowl teams but nothing more. Notre Dame will be favored and have the better quarterback in each game. The game at Louisville is a tricky proposition. Louisville is in their first season under Jeff Brohm and they have a win total number of 8.5. That could be a true toss-up game.

You are counting on Notre Dame to avoid losing any games they shouldn’t lose and then win at least one toss-up game or game in which they will be an underdog to cash that bet. At odds of -110, that’s a good bet.

Verdict: Bet

Indiana to win 4+ Games: -130

The Indiana Hoosiers are coming off of back-to-back very disappointing seasons and they have a win total number of 3.5 victories with the over juiced to -130. As is typically the case, Indiana has a challenging schedule in the Big Ten East, with annual games against Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Nearly every season that guarantees the Hoosiers three losses.

IU finishes the season with the Old Oaken Bucket game against Purdue and also drew Wisconsin and at Illinois out of the Big Ten West. They will be underdogs against both the Badgers and Illini, but both contests are conceivably winnable. IU will be favorites against Indiana State and Akron and likely against Rutgers at home. Assuming they don’t trip up in any of those contests, the Hoosiers must find one win somewhere else on the schedule. The most likely candidates are Michigan State at home (the week after the Spartans play at Ohio State), a Week 3 game in Indianapolis against Louisville and then at Maryland.

Indiana has some talent on offense, including Tennessee transfer quarterback Tayven Jackson (the brother of former IU basketball star Trayce Jackson-Davis), North Carolina transfer running back Josh Henderson and returning Freshman All-American Jaylin Lucas. Indiana hit the reset button in the transfer portal and will be starting a number of transfers on both sides of the ball. How well that works is a mystery, but there are enough toss-up games to feel good about taking a shot on this bet.

Verdict: Bet

Purdue to win 6+ Games: +120

The Purdue Boilermakers lost head coach Jeff Brohm to Louisville, starting quarterback Aidan O’Connell to the NFL and a couple of defensive stars have also departed. There is still talent in West Lafayette, but new head coach Ryan Walters has his work cut out for him in week one, thanks to a tough schedule.

The Boilermakers open the season against the Fresno State Bulldogs, a very solid mid-major program. They will then play at Virginia Tech and against Syracuse to close the non-conference schedule. The most likely outcome is 2-1, but it is conceivable they will go 3-0 or even 0-3 against that slate. The Big Ten schedule offers no breaks as Purdue drew Ohio State and Michigan from the Big Ten East. The only two games they will surely be favorites in are to close the season at Northwestern and against Indiana.

Getting to six wins against that schedule is a tall task.

Verdict: Pass

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