College Football Odds: Big Ten conference prediction, odds, pick for 2023 season
Michigan football has dominated the Big Ten Conference the last two years, but can they make it a three-peat? It is time to continue our College Football odds series with a special 2023 Big Ten Conference winner prediction and pick.
Last year, Michigan went through the regular season undefeated on their way to the Big Ten Title game. There, they met with the Purdue Boilermakers. It was not much of a contest, as Michigan won 43-22 to take the title. It was their second straight title after they won in 2021, 42-3 over Iowa. Ohio State wants to end Michigan's quest for a three-peat. They have lost just two conference games in the last two years, both of them to the team up north. Meanwhile, a team not named Michigan or Ohio State has not won the conference since 2016. That team was Penn State, who will be looking to get back to the title game this year.
Since 2014, when the divisions went to East and West, a team from the West has yet to win the game. Iowa was the closest back in 2015, but they lost to Michigan State by three. Meanwhile, Wisconsin has been to four title games, and has yet to win, losing to Ohio State every time. They have a new coach this year, and Luke Fickell knows what it takes to win big games. He took Cincinnati to the playoffs back in 2021.
This year, the clear favorites are Michigan and Ohio State again, but each team starts with an 0-0 record, so someone could come up and surprise the field.
Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: Big Ten Conference Winner
Ohio State: +165
Michigan: +180
Penn State: +600
Wisconsin: +950
Iowa: +1200
Minnesota: +2000
Illinois: +5000
Maryland: +7000
Nebraska: +7500
Purdue: +9500
Michigan State: +15000
Northwestern: +42000
Indiana: +42000
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Favorites to Win the Big Ten Conference
The favorite to win the conference this year is Ohio State. They come into the season with a win total set at 10.5 games with the over favored. They open the season with a road Big Ten game at Indiana on September 2nd. That should be an easy win to start the year, with Indiana projected as one of the worst teams in the conference. The first test of the year comes at the end of September with Notre Dame in South Bend, but with that not counting toward Big Ten standings, they can afford the loss there. After games with Maryland and Purdue, Ohio State gets Penn State at home.
Penn State has not won this game since 2016, and they have not won at Ohio State since 2011. Ohio State should get past them, but they have two rough road games to come. They play both Wisconsin and Michigan on the road. They may be able to afford a loss to Wisconsin, but Michigan could be for a chance at the title.
Michigan comes in off back-to-back titles. Like Ohio State, this could be seen as a two-game schedule. They dodge Wisconsin and Iowa this year, the two top-rated teams in the West. They do have the rivalry game with Minnesota at Minnesota. The Gophers have not won this game since 2014, and have not won it at home since 1977. They will have to play Michigan State away from home as well. The Spartans won this last time they were in East Lansing, but the Spartans are not as good as they were then, and Michigan is much better with JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum running the show.
The game at Penn State could be an issue. While the Wolverines have won two in a row over Penn State, they have lost five of their last seven in Happy Valley. Even if they get through that game, they have Ohio State to close the season. Michigan has not won three in a row over Ohio State since 1995-1997. That last year was the last time Michigan won a national title, so they will be looking to repeat history here.
Penn State is third in odds, but they have a huge mountain to overcome. They are the third-best team in this conference and will have a new offense with Drew Allard leading the way. Penn State walks into the season ranked fifth in SP+ according to Bill Connelly. Still, two of the teams in front of them are Michigan and Ohio State. If they can win one of those games, they could have a chance to make a run.
With Michigan at home this year, they could shock the Wolverines and take a win. If they have already lost to Ohio State at that point, their season will be on the line. Still, if there is a three-way tie with every team just having the round-robin loss, Ohio State would be the favorite to move on due to the fifth tie-breaker. The prediction is Penn State has a solid year in the Big Ten, but it may not be enough.
Sleepers to Win the Big Ten Conference
With Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State all in the same division, the sleeper to win it has to come from the West. While the West has never won a title, it would be fitting to do so in the last year of divisions. Wisconsin is the favorite to win the West, sitting at +150. Tanner Mordecai comes in and gives Wisconsin a legitimate threat at quarterback. Last year he threw for over 3,500 yards while also having 33 touchdowns. The new offense will help too. Phil Longo brings in an air raid offense, and with Chimere Dike and Skyler Bell both back, plus Braelon Allen in the backfield, the offense could be potent. While they do have to play Ohio State, the biggest hurdle to winning the division comes on October 14th at home against Iowa.
Iowa is also hoping to have a new offense. The mandate in their offensive coordinator's contract is simple. Brian Ferentz has to have the offense lead them to seven wins and score 25 points per game in the process. If they had done that last year, this was a 10-2 team. They took care of Wisconsin last year, 24-10. If the defense can keep up their quality play, they will have a chance to win the West. If they do, they will get their shot at the title.
Final 2023 Big Ten Conference Winner Prediction and Pick:
With Iowa bringing in new weapons on offense, with Cade McNamara and Erik All joining from Michigan, the offense will be better. Why they did lose Jack Campbell, the defense will be solid. The prediction is that Iowa wins against Wisconsin and takes the Big Ten West. Michigan will lose to Penn State, but Penn State will lose to Ohio State, and stumble another time to set up a defacto East Division title game between Michigan and Ohio State. Michigan takes the game and moves on. With that, this year, the prediction is Michigan faces Iowa, and wins the Big Ten for a third straight year.
Final 2023 Big Ten Conference Prediction and Pick: Michigan (+180)
