College Football Odds, Pick for BYU vs West Virginia (November 4)

BYU vs West Virginia Odds

The BYU Cougars travel from the Rocky Mountains to the Appalachian Mountains for a Big 12 conference game against the West Virginia Mountaineers. Both teams are 5-3, but they've gotten there differently.

BYU is still searching for its first conference road win after double-digit defeats to Kansas, TCU and Texas. But despite those bad outings, it's only one win away from going bowling.

Still, West Virginia has been pretty good, and Morgantown is a tough place to play.

Let's take a look at the odds for BYU vs. West Virginia.

BYU's route to 5-3 has been normal and unconventional simultaneously. The Cougars have beaten everyone they were supposed to beat and have lost to the teams that are better than them.

That may seem normal, but it seldom shakes out that way in college football.

BYU has wins over Sam Houston State, Southern Utah, Arkansas, Cincinnati and Texas Tech (who started its third-string quarterback in the matchup). The wins all count the same, but BYU's record is a bit inflated because it is beating bad teams and can't hang against the better teams in the Big 12.

Getting Kedon Slovis in the transfer portal has been a life-saver for BYU because he is holding this offense together. Slovis has completed 57.5% of his passes for 1,716 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions. That's not ideal, but he is at least a steady hand guiding the offense. His bad games have come in blowouts where BYU wasn't winning either way, and he's been decent in wins.

Aside from a few good pass catchers, Slovis isn't exactly working with an All-Star team. The Cougars rank fourth-worst in offensive EPA and have generated only 650 total rushing yards at 2.9 yards per carry.

Our Action Analytics metrics tell the same story. BYU is 110th or worse in most statistical categories.

Defensively, BYU hasn't been able to stop Power 5 teams. In six games against P5 competition, the Cougars are giving up 31.5 points per game. The Cougars can't rush the passer and are 116th in Havoc generated.

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West Virginia Mountaineers

This wasn't expected to be a good season for West Virginia, but the Mountaineers have flipped the script and have a real shot at an eight-win campaign.

Quarterback Garrett Greene has given this offense an extra bit of juice. He leads the team with eight rushing touchdowns and has completed 53.5% of his passes for 1,340 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.

His backfield partner, CJ Donaldson Jr., helps power the rushing attack with 574 yards and seven scores.

West Virginia grades out as a slightly above-average offense, ranking in the mid-50s in most advanced statistical metrics.

The Mountaineers defense started the season strong but has been leaky since. In their past three games, they have given up 41, 48 and 28 points.

Our Action Analytics team doesn't love the Mountaineers, and they've been lucky with turnovers, generating three against UCF last week.

BYU vs West Virginia

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and West Virginia match up statistically:

BYU vs West Virginia

Betting Pick & Prediction

These teams have the same record, but the betting markets consider West Virginia a 10-point favorite in this game. This caught me off guard at first glance, but it makes sense.

BYU isn't as good as its record indicates. The Cougars have yet to beat even an average P5 team and have looked terrible on the road, except for a win over an Arkansas team that's not good this year.

Meanwhile, West Virginia is a solid team that will probably finish around 7-5. BYU has yet to beat a team of that caliber.

Take West Virginia to cover in Morgantown.