College football picks, Week 5: Middle Tennessee vs. WKU prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more

The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders face the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in a Conference-USA matchup in Week 5. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, September 28 from LT Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky. The game will air on CBSSN.

MTSU (1-3, 0-0 CUSA) has kept it interesting in some big games this year. Thought they have just one win this year — a Week 3 victory over Murray State — they fell to Missouri by just four points in Week 2. In Week 4, the Blue Raiders were up heading into the final 15 minutes, but lost to Colorado State by eight after the Rams staged a massive fourth-quarter comeback. WKU quarterback Nicholas Vattiato passed for 279 yards and two touchdowns in the Week 4 loss.

WKU (2-2, 0-0 CUSA) opened their season with back-to-back wins, but dropped their last two games against Ohio State and Troy. In their three-point loss to Troy in Week 4, Western Kentucky struggled defensively, letting up 349 passing yards and 172 rushing yards. Quarterback Austin Reed passed for 268 yards and two touchdowns, but the run game never quite got off the ground.

Here’s everything you need to know and a pick for the game.

SP+ Rankings

Middle Tennessee: 112 overall, 118 offense, 99 defense
WKU: 91 overall, 67 offense, 120 defense

Injury update

Middle Tennessee

N/A

WKU

RB Markese Stepp - Questionable (undisclosed)WR Moussa Barry - Questionable (undisclosed)WR Blue Smith - Questionable (undisclosed)TE Trevor Borland - Questionable (arm)WR Dalvin Smith - Questionable (foot)

WR Michael Mathison - Questionable (lower body)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Middle Tennessee: 1-3 ATS
WKU: 2-2 ATS

Total in 2023

Middle Tennessee: Over 2-2
WKU: Over 2-2

Current lines at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: WKU -6.5
Total: 60.5
Moneyline: WKU -238, MTSU +195

Weather

The Pick

Middle Tennessee +6.5

The Blue Raiders have just one win this year, but they have kept things very interesting with some very good teams. Their games against Missouri and Colorado State could have gone either way, and as they head into this rivalry matchup, they will be bringing their all. I think Middle Tennessee should be able to keep it within a touchdown this week.