College football picks, Week 6: Notre Dame vs. Louisville prediction, odds, spread, game preview, more

We have a psuedo-ACC matchup in the Bluegrass State to look forward to as the No. 10 Notre Dame Fighting Irish head south to L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to meet the No. 25 Louisville Cardinals. The game will kick off at 7:37 p.m. ET and will air on ABC.

Notre Dame (5-1) bounced back from its last-second loss against Ohio State the week prior by pulling ahead of Duke for a 21-14 road victory last Saturday. Down by 1 and facing 4th and 16 in the final minute, the Fighting Irish seemed destined for an upset loss before quarterback Sam Hartman scrambled 17 yards for a game-saving first down. Two-plays later, running back Audric Estime broke off a 30-yard touchdown run to put ND on top and the ensuing two-point conversion gave them a seven-point lead. The defense would then seal the game and perhaps Notre Dame’s playoff hopes by strip-sacking Duke QB Riley Leonard, who unfortunately suffered an ankle injury in the process.

Louisville (5-0, 3-0 ACC) sits atop the ACC standings heading into Week 6 and is fresh off a tight 13-10 win at NC State last Friday. The Cardinal offense struggled in the first half with a missed field goal, a fumble, and an interception preventing them from putting any points on the board prior to halftime. However, a field goal and a Jack Plummer touchdown pass to Chris Bell allowed for them to tie the game and a 53-yard Brock Travelstead field goal with 5:32 left in the ballgame put them on top. A Quincy Riley interception with 1:33 left would official seal the game for UL.

SP+ Rankings

Notre Dame: 8 overall, 16 offense, 7 defense
Louisville: 29 overall, 34 offense, 24 defense

Injury update

Notre Dame

TE Eli Raridon - Out (Knee)K Chris Salerno - Out for season (Leg)WR Jaden Greathouse - Questionable (Hamstring)WR Jayden Thomas - Questionable (Hamstring)

DL Gabe Rubio - Out (Knee)

Louisville

DB Jaden Minkins - Questionable (Undisclosed)

ATS/Total

Against The Spread in 2023

Notre Dame: 4-1-1 ATS
Louisville: 2-3 ATS

Total in 2023

Notre Dame: Over 3-3
Louisville: Over 2-2-1

Team Pace

Notre Dame: 1.99 plays per minute of offense (120th)
Louisville: 2.15 plays per minute of offense (84th)

Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread: Notre Dame -6.5
Total: 53.5
Moneyline: Notre Dame -250, Louisville +205

Opening line: Notre Dame -6.5

Weather

Our Best Bet for Notre Dame vs. Louisville

Notre Dame -6.5

Jeff Brohm has already done a fantastic job in his first season back at his alma mater, but he’s running into an extremely difficult draw here. Notre Dame is the more talented team across the board and its been battle tested these last two weeks.

One might argue that the Irish could get caught into a look ahead spot with USC coming to South Bend next week, but I think Sam Hartman and company will use this as an opportunity to drop the hammer on a formidable ranked opponent. Lay it with Notre Dame as I don’t think this game will be particularly close.