College Football Playoff odds: Value on Alabama?

The College Football Playoff field will set after this weekend’s conference championship games, and there are several scenarios that could shake up the field.

The only team that is all but locked in is Michigan being that they’re 23-point favorites over Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game, as even No. 1 Georgia isn’t guaranteed a spot since they still have to face Alabama.

Georgia is a 6-point favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game, and the oddsmakers have the Crimson Tide at +200 to make the four-team CFP field at Caesars Sportsbook.

The Bulldogs are -600 to make it, implying that there’s still a chance that they get in even if they lose, which was the case in 2021 when the one-loss Crimson Tide pulled off the SEC Championship upset over the undefeated Bulldogs.

This season could prove trickier though for both SEC powers to make the CFP, as Oregon, Florida State and Texas all have better odds to make the field than the Crimson Tide and are favored in their respective conference championship games.

Oregon (-360 to make the CFP) is all but guaranteed a spot with a win over Washington as a 9.5-point favorite, but Florida State (-150 to make it) is only a 2.5-point favorite over Louisville and appears somewhat vulnerable even if they win.

The CFP committee could deem the Seminoles as not deserving considering the ACC is down this season, which could open the door for Texas (+130 to make it), who’s a 15-point favorite in the Big 12 Championship Game and beat Alabama head-to-head earlier this season.

The Crimson Tide would be all but guaranteed a spot as the SEC champion regardless of if Florida State and Texas lose, but the chance of that happening seems too unlikely for the Crimson Tide's odds of making the CFP at +200 feel like a value.

If anything, the Crimson Tide missing the CFP could be the play at -260 since they'd be eliminated if they're unable to upset the Bulldogs.

Undefeated Washington is also still in the CFP mix and would likely get in with an upset win over Oregon, and Ohio State is still alive but is a longshot being that they need multiple teams ranked above them to lose.

ODDS TO MAKE THE CFP

Georgia: Yes -600, No +400

Oregon: Yes -360, No +260

Florida State: Yes -150, No +120

Texas: Yes +130, No -160

Alabama: Yes +200, No -260

Washington: Yes +260, No -360

Ohio State: Yes +1200, No -5000

Odds by Caesars Sportsbook as of Tuesday, Nov. 28, official odds partner of Bet.NOLA.com