College Football Playoff prediction: Florida State, Georgia own best chance to make final four, per ESPN's FPI

With only two weeks left in the 2023 regular season, the College Football Playoff picture remains uncertain with numerous teams vying for a coveted spot in the four-team field. While there was a change at the top of the latest rankings released Tuesday by the selection committee with Georgia overtaking Ohio State at No. 1, the rest of the order through the top eight stayed the same.

Unless there are four undefeated Power Five conference champions, the committee must decideon college football's best one-loss teamsand determine who is most-deserving to play for a national title.

ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI)is a "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily."

Here is a look at ESPN's updated FPI projections based on percentage chance to make the CFP:

Oklahoma Sooners (8-2)

FPI chance to make CFP: 0.1%

It would take absolute chaos in the final weeks of the regular season, as well as shocking results on Championship Saturday, for Oklahoma to make the College Football Playoff — but it is still possible. No two-loss team has ever made the final four. With nine Power Five teams either still undefeated or sitting with only one loss, it seems unlikely that trend will end this season. The Sooners do not control their own destiny to even reach the Big 12 title game following back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State. Sorting through the conference's confusing tiebreaker scenarios, a potential rematch with Texas for the Big 12 Championship looks doubtful as well.

Current CFP ranking: No. 14

Oregon State Beavers (8-2)

FPI chance to make CFP: 0.5%

Oregon State has two massive opportunities to shake up the College Football Playoff race with remaining games against Washington and Oregon to close out the regular season. The Beavers could knock the top contenders for the Pac-12 title out of the Playoff. However, they too would need chaos to ensue in order to have a case for the final four. Oregon State is currently tied with Arizona on the outside looking in at a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The Beavers are also at a disadvantage in the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Wildcats.

Current CFP ranking: No. 11

Louisville Cardinals (9-1)

FPI chance to make CFP: 2.4%

Louisville can clinch a spot in the ACC Championship Game with a win at Miami on Saturday. That would set up a battle with Florida State in Charlotte. If both teams win out the rest of the regular season and depending on what happens throughout the rest of the Power Five conferences, a berth in the College Football Playoff could also be on the line. The Cardinals only loss this season came at Pittsburgh in mid-October and that defeat is hard to overlook from the perspective of the selection committee. Still, Louisville has a chance if the chips land in its favor.

Current CFP ranking: No. 10

Washington Huskies (10-0)

FPI chance to make CFP: 23.5%

Of the five remaining undefeated teams in the Power Five, Washington has the lowest percentage chance to make the College Football Playoff. The Huskies have a top-10 matchup at Oregon State on Saturday before closing out the regular season with the final Apple Cup against Washington State as a member of the Pac-12. A win in either of those secures a spot in the conference championship game, where Washington could very likely face a rematch with Oregon. The Huskies narrowly won the first meeting in Seattle, but would probably be an underdog against the Ducks in Las Vegas. None of that matters if Washington is undefeated as a Pac-12 champion. It will be in the CFP if that is the case.

Current CFP ranking: No. 5

Texas Longhorns (9-1)

FPI chance to make CFP: 26.5%

Texas controls its own destiny to secure a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game, but will need some help to get into the College Football Playoff. The Longhorns avoided upsets in three of the past four weeks and must continue to do so in the final weeks of the regular season, starting with a trip to Iowa State on Saturday night. Texas has lost four of its last five games in Ames. The big boost on the Longhorns' résumé is the Week 2 win at Alabama. Although the Crimson Tide look much better now than they did then, the selection committee made it clear head-to-head results matter greatly.

Current CFP ranking: No. 7

Alabama Crimson Tide (9-1)

FPI chance to make CFP: 27.9%

Speaking of Alabama, it has won eight-straight games since that loss to Texas back in early September. The Crimson Tide locked in a spot for the SEC Championship Game against Georgia where it could be a win-or-go-home situation for the College Football Playoff. Would the selection committee keep Alabama out of the four-team field as a one-loss SEC champion? Surely not. A key reason for the turnaround of the Crimson Tide is quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has 22 total touchdowns in the past seven games since being benched in Week 3.

Current CFP ranking: No. 8

Oregon Ducks (9-1)

FPI chance to make CFP: 51.7%

The eye test shows Oregon is one of the strongest teams in college football heading into the final weeks of the regular season. The Ducks have rattled off four-straight wins since blowing a lead in the final minutes at Washington in mid-October and control their own destiny for a potential rematch in the Pac-12 Championship Game. However, based on the latest College Football Playoff, a one-loss Pac-12 winner would not be guaranteed a spot in the four-team field with unbeaten Washington currently on the outside looking in. Oregon will likely need some help to make a return to the CFP.

Current CFP ranking: No. 6

Michigan Wolverines (10-0)

FPI chance to make CFP: 63.3%

Michigan passed its first true test of the season and proved it is still a legitimate national title contender after beating Penn State in Happy Valley last weekend. The Wolverines path to a third-consecutive Big Ten title includes a highly-anticipated rivalry matchup against Ohio State in "The Game." Win and Michigan is likely in the College Football Playoff with the weak Big Ten West showing no threat of an upset in Indianapolis. But what happens if the Buckeyes reclaim the East division? Could the selection committee take both Michigan and Ohio State for the second-straight year?

Current CFP ranking: No. 3

Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)

FPI chance to make CFP: 67.1%

Ohio State fell off the top spot in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but the path to securing a spot in the final four-team field is clear: beat Michigan and reclaim the Big Ten title. The selection committee noted the Buckeyes' resume is strong with a 5-0 record against teams currently above .500. However, some of those wins do not look as good now compared to when they occurred — namely Notre Dame and Wisconsin. Still, Ohio State has made an appearance in five of the nine CFPs since it began in 2014 and is firmly in the mix for another bid.

Current CFP ranking: No. 2

Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)

FPI chance to make CFP: 68.0%

Georgia may have reclaimed the No. 1 ranking in the latest College Football Playoff Top 25, but the Bulldogs are far from locking in a spot in the final four-team field. They must first survive a key SEC East battle at Tennessee on Saturday before a rivalry game at Georgia Tech in the regular-season finale. Then Georgia must get past Alabama in the SEC Championship Game. Nobody is doubting the Bulldogs' capability to do so, especially after a dominant win against Ole Miss last weekend. Georgia has won 27-straight games overall en route to back-to-back national championships.

Current CFP ranking: No. 1

Florida State Seminoles (10-0)

FPI chance to make CFP: 68.9%

Florida State is hanging on to the final spot in the top four, but appears to have the best chance to make the College Football Playoff. The Seminoles are one of the five remaining unbeatens in the Power Five and already clinched a berth in the ACC Championship Game. If they win out the regular season that sets up an obvious win-and-in situation. Even with only one win against a team currently ranked in the CFP Top 25, Florida State has the third-best strength of record in the FBS, which provides a strong argument it is deserving of a spot in the final four-team field.