College Football Predictions 2023: Is Temple a Sleeper in the AAC?
As we approach Week 0, I’m working on filling out my college football futures portfolio, and I did a deep dive on the Temple Owls and the AAC this week.
Let’s discuss the complete AAC picture and the Owls’ upside.
College Football Predictions: AAC Favorites
Tulane had a season for the ages last year, flipping a 2-10 2021 record into a 12-2 2022 record with a Cotton Bowl win over USC and Heisman-winner Caleb Williams.
Naturally, the Green Wave are the consensus betting favorite to win the AAC.
SMU, UTSA, Memphis and Florida Atlantic all check in with odds between +300 and +650, creating a comprehensive second tier in the conference.
Temple and Navy sit in the middle tier of this conference, with odds around 25-to-1.
The rest of the league is practically left for dead, with every other team sitting longer than 50-to-1 to win the conference.
Here are the full AAC odds from FanDuel Sportsbook:
Tulane: +210
SMU: +340
UTSA: +470
Memphis: +600
Florida Atlantic: +650
Temple: +2400
Navy: +2900
East Carolina: +5000
South Florida: +5000
Rice: +6000
UAC: +6000
Tulsa: +7500
Charlotte: +12000
College Football Predictions: AAC Predictions
One of the great things about the AAC this season is that Tulane is a faux favorite.
The Green Wave are due for a ton of negative regression. They won the AAC but were only +49 net yards per game in conference play and were the beneficiaries of a +5 turnover differential.
The Wave return only 13 starters and suffered some big losses. All-Group of Five running back Tyjae Spears is gone alongside their top five tacklers.
The Wave also lose both their coordinators.
When the top team in the conference is vulnerable, that opens up value for the rest of the board. However, I am buying all of the teams in the second tier.
Let’s start with Memphis.
The Tigers went 0-4 in one-score games last season and lost another by 10. They lost three games by six combined points. They suffered a wildly unlucky loss against Houston and a four-overtime loss to East Carolina. They out-gained all but one conference opponent.
They’re due for some positive regression — the Tigers were one of the unluckiest teams in CFB last season.
This year, the Tigers are the only team in the AAC that return their head coach, quarterback and both coordinators.
The schedule is a breeze. Every single game is winnable. Three of the Tigers’ five road opponents are coming off three-win seasons, and they have six total matchups with first-year head coaches.
I think Memphis cruises over its win total and will be in the running for the title game.
Meanwhile, I’m buying UTSA because of its quarterback and head coach.
Quarterback Frank Harris returns for his seventh collegiate season, all with UTSA. He’s a crafty lefty who turned into one of the Group of Five’s best quarterbacks last season, completing almost 70% of his passes for over 4,000 yards and 32 touchdowns, and he added 600 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.
Jeff Traylor can coach his head off. He’s 30-10 as head coach of the Roadrunners. He also signed the AAC’s best recruiting class in the offseason.
The Roadrunners don’t have much in the way of returning production, but this roster has enough talent to complement Traylor and Harris. In particular, this could be one of the league’s best secondaries.
Also, FAU pulled off a huge head coaching hire by grabbing Tom Herman from Texas. While he gets a bad rap, he posted a 22-4 record as the head coach at Houston and a 32-18 record as the head coach at Texas.
He inherits the most experienced roster in the AAC. 18 starters are back for FAU, and the Owls are third nationally in SP+ returning production.
FAU had four losses by a field goal or less last year, so they’re due for some close-game positive regression.
This year, the Owls won the scheduling lottery. They avoid both SMU and Memphis and host both UTSA and Tulane. Their road schedule is cookie-cutter (South Florida, Charlotte, UAB, Rice).
The X-factor for FAU will be quarterback Casey Thompson, who transfers from Nebraska. He’s a Power Five arm with the potential to be the best-ever quarterback at FAU.
Thompson has a top-notch offensive line in front of him and one of the best running backs behind him.
Finally, SMU is on the up and up. The Mustangs lost Tanner Mordecai, but Preston Stone is a highly-touted quarterback prospect, and he’ll have an impressive group of pass catchers (specifically, Jordan Kerley and RJ Maryland).
Stone will be protected by an experienced offensive line with 123 career starts.
The Mustangs also leveraged NIL money to bring in a ton of Power Five transfers on defense. Defensive end Elijah Roberts and defensive tackle Jordan Miller transferred in from Miami, instantly improving their previously-lousy run defense.
Four of SMU’s six losses last season came by one score. They easily should’ve beaten Maryland and Cincinnati. Close-game positive regression is coming.
The Mustangs will be favored in every conference game, and they should go 6-0 at home. Their home schedule features Louisiana Tech, Prairie View A&M, Charlotte, Tulsa, North Texas and Navy — I’d call that cookie-cutter.
The Mustangs avoid Tulane, UTSA and FAU in conference play. That’s massive.
College Football Predictions: Temple Owls
The bottom half of the league is brutal. This is a league of the haves and have-nots.
But among the teams toward the bottom of the league, I’m surprisingly high on Temple.
Three wins might not show it, but the Owls took a step forward under first-year head coach Stan Drayton in 2022.
They handed over the offense to EJ Warner — the son of NFL legend Kurt Warner — who earned AAC Rookie of the year honors. He tossed for over 3,000 yards and threw 10 touchdowns over his final four games, toasting Houston and East Carolina’s defenses down the stretch.
Not to mention, Warner did this all as a true Freshman.
Some of these throws are really impressive.
This will be Drayton and Warner’s second year in the system, so they both project to take a step forward.
Also, the Owls were simply unlucky last year. They were -11 in net turnovers and went 0-4 in one-score games, with two of those losses coming by a combined five points and another coming in overtime.
The Owls played better than their record, and they should see some close-game and turnover luck in the upcoming year.
The Owls return 16 starters and picked up some nice transfers in the portal. Specifically, defensive end Darian Varner transfers in from Wisconsin and should improve the team’s pass rush.
The schedule isn’t perfect, but every game is winnable. They project as favorites or small underdogs against Akron, Norfolk State, Tulsa, North Texas, Navy, South Florida and UAB. They also get UTSA, SMU and Memphis all at home.
The Action Network’s analytics team projects Temple for 7.4 wins in the upcoming season, making the Over 5 wins (-150) at DraftKings a must-bet.
College Football Predictions: AAC Best Bets
In terms of conference title futures bets, I decided on three.
I’m making a play on SMU (+340 at FanDuel) because the schedule is so soft. It seems almost impossible they miss the conference title game with their schedule, and the “Stone Age” figures to, ironically, be a bright one.
If the transfers on defense hit, SMU could be a wagon.
I’m also making a play on FAU (+700 at BetRivers) because they have the longest odds of the four teams I’m buying. This figures to be a dominant offense led by quarterback Thompson and coach Herman.
Finally, I’m throwing some couch change on Temple (+3500 at DraftKings). If Tulane can go from 2-12 to AAC champs, why can’t Temple? They look similar on paper.
Regarding teams I’m fading, I’d hammer a Win Total Under bet on UAB.
The Blazers were gutted in the offseason. They have the sixth-lowest SP+ returning production mark in college football and return an FBS-low 14.3% starts on the offensive line.
UAB hired Trent Dilfer as their head coach in the offseason, the most overrated coaching hire this offseason. He had moderate success as a coach of a Double-A high-school program in Tennessee, but what does that mean?
UAB is projected as a favorite in one game this season, the opener against North Carolina A&T. They’re projected as double-digit underdogs in seven other games.
The Action Network’s Analytics team projects UAB for 3.3 wins this season, so I’d grab the Under 5 Wins (-105) available at DraftKings.
The plays:
SMU to win the AAC (+340 at FanDuel)
FAU to win the AAC (+700 at BetRivers)
Temple to win the AAC (+3500 at DraftKings)
Temple Over 5.5 Wins (-150 at DraftKings)
UAB Under 5 Wins (-105) at DraftKings
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