College football predictions: Oregon State vs. Arizona, UConn vs. Boston College
This is the time of year when college football’s middle class is making a push toward bowl eligibility, a handful of elite teams are trying to keep their College Football Playoff dreams alive, while some teams have flat-out quit.
I’m dabbling in all three this week for my best bets.
Oregon State at Arizona
Oregon State -3
In the world of sports betting, there are public and non-public teams.
For every Alabama and USC drawing interest and wagers from casual fans, there are teams like Oregon State flying under the radar.
Despite achieving their highest ranking in the AP poll since 2012, the Beavers are still being priced like a mid-tier bowl team.
They simply don’t have the sizzle of other Pac-12 programs with Heisman candidates at quarterback.
And that’s why you’re still seeing them discounted in the betting market despite a 5-2 record against the spread.
Between the white lines, Oregon State has been rock solid all season long.
Their offense is perfectly balanced, evidenced by its success rate on the ground (fourth) and explosiveness through the air (21st).
The former Dr. Pepper pitchman, DJ Uiagalelei, looks reborn in black and orange.
He ranks seventh in QBR nationally while accounting for 20 total touchdowns against just four turnovers.
Among running backs with at least 100 carries, Damien Martinez ranks third nationally with 6.4 yards per carry.
As a team, Oregon State is incredibly efficient across the board and leads the nation in red zone scoring percentage (100 percent) and touchdown percentage inside opponents’ 20-yard line (84%).
But the main reason I love this play is Jonathan Smith.
Since arriving in Corvallis, he is the fourth-most profitable coach in the country as a favorite, cashing tickets at a 70.4% clip. He will have his team ready to play in the desert following their bye week.
UConn at Boston College
BC -14
It’s white flag season for UConn.
After leading the Huskies to a surprise bowl appearance last season, Jim Mora has lost his team here in 2023.
Sitting at 1-6, coming off of a homecoming loss to a middling USF squad, UConn is ready to quit.
And here comes a BC team that is absolutely surging thanks to dual-threat quarterback Thomas Castellanos.
Winners of three straight, the Eagles are riding the do-everything Castellanos until his wheels fall off.
Last week against Georgia Tech, Castellanos threw for 255 yards, rushed for 128 yards and accounted for four total touchdowns.
Betting on College Football?
UConn has bottomed out defensively, particularly against the pass where they rank 130th in success rate.
Once the Eagles grab an early lead, all the pressure will slide over to UConn’s Ta’Quan Roberson.
He’s been dreadful this season, posting four games with a QBR below 34. Boston College should wipe the floor with the Huskies.
San Jose State at Hawaii
San Jose State -10.5
SJSU was left for dead at 1-5, but that was more a testament to its brutal schedule that featured three ranked opponents and road tests at Toledo and Boise State.
Since then, the Spartans have reeled off back-to-back wins, decimating New Mexico and Utah State.
Now they’re set to face a Hawaii defense that has surrendered 40+ points in four of its last five games.
The Spartans defense looks rejuvenated as of late, cranking up the havoc with 15 tackles for loss and seven takeaways in their last three games.
Brent Brennan’s defense will be the difference here against a Hawaii offensive line that can’t protect their quarterback (121st in sacks allowed) or consistently open holes for their running backs (118th in rushing success rate).
