College Football Totals Picks Week 3: Over or Under Predictions for Saturday
Since this season and series are both young, I restate the purpose of this article. Each week I'll list my best over/under (or total) plays and analyze my reason for picking them. Then, using Doc's trusted "Unit Betting System", I give the wagers to place that will hopefully maximize our investment. The standard unit will be $100.
Well, 3-1 sure is a nice way to start a college football season. We hit our big unit play as Nebraska's defense played inspired football, even if their offense continued to give Colorado short fields. Wisconsin is still working out the kinks in their "air raid" offense, and Michigan's offensive unit does seem to be firing on all cylinders yet. Our only blemish was in the Iowa-Iowa St. affair, where we missed a push because of a blocked field goal.
During the off-season, the NCAA adopted some new rules regarding the game clock. I wrote an article detailing all of the changes. How College Football Rule Changes Could Affect Bettors (docsports.com)
So far, there has been a very slight change to the under. Last year's regular season totals were 758 over, 731 under, and 26 pushes. That comes out to 50.9% over and 49.1% under. So far this season, there have been 87 overs, 88 unders, and 2 pushes. That gives us 49.7% on the overs and 50.3% on the unders. What will require a little more digging is to see if Vegas has made the adjustments and set their totals lower or if is this strictly due to a decrease in the amount of points scored.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Now for Week 3
#7 Penn State at Illinois (+14.5/48.5) Sat. Noon
The Nittany Lions have been very efficient on offense this season, ranking #22 or better in points per game scored, offensive yards per game, offensive points per play, and offensive yards per play. They have a streak of nine consecutive games in which they've scored 30 or more points. However, this is new QB Drew Allar's first start on the road. Allar's inexperience should be masked by Illinois's ineptness on defense. They are averaging giving up 31 points per contest and are on the bottom end of the spectrum of all those categories above. The only question is will Illinois be able to score two touchdowns, as I see the Lions putting up at least 5 TDs. PICK: OVER 48.5 (5 units)
Bowling Green @ Michigan (-40.5/52.5) Sat. 7:30 PM
My experiment with Michigan's offense has almost run its course. I had predicted that the Wolverines might play more conservatively without their head coach present. The first two games of head coach Jim Harbaugh's suspension have seen the mighty Wolverines fail to cover or go over the totals in both contests. Each week both the spread and total have increased, yet Michigan has stayed in the 30s in scoring while giving up a total of 10 points in those games. I see more of the same this week, as the boys in "Maize and Blue" try to keep everyone healthy for the start of conference play next week. PICK: Under 52.5 (4 units)
Pittsburgh @ West Virginia (-2.5/47.5) Sat. 7:30 PM
Rivalry games, such as the "Backyard Brawl" between these two schools, can either be a defensive battle or a shootout. The one thing you can rely on is that neither head coach will grant mercy if ahead. The Mountaineers put up 15 points against Penn State's top-20 defense. Pittsburgh has been averaging 33 points per game as well. Last year's edition of this century-old rivalry had Pittsburgh winning 38-31. West Virginia's offense is much improved, and they'll look to seek revenge. PICK: Over 47.5 (3 units)
#15 Kansas State @ Missouri (+3.5/47.5) Sat. Noon
Like most teams, it's tough to get an accurate gauge of how good Kansas State's offense is. They scored 45 on an FCS team, but last week they hung 42 on a Troy team that returns 7 starters from a team that won 12 games and had the 8th-best scoring in the nation. The Wildcats are averaging 305 ypg through the air. That's only 70 yards less than Missouri's entire offensive average. I see Kansas State getting up early and Missouri having to pass frequently as they're forced to catch up. All of which are good things for the over. PICK: Over 47.5 (5 units)
Last Week's Record: 3-1 75% (+8.7 units)
Season Total: 3-1 75% (+8.7 units)
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