Colorado Avalanche at St. Louis Blues odds, picks and predictions

The Colorado Avalanche (21-11-3) and St. Louis Blues (18-15-1) tussle in a Friday night Central Division tilt. The opening faceoff at the Enterprise Center is slated for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Avalanche vs. Blues odds, and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Colorado, the 1st-place club in the Central, is closing out a 2-game road trip after falling 5-4 in overtime at Arizona Wednesday. The Avs scored 2 powerplay goals against the Coyotes and are 13-for-27 (48.1%) in extra-man situations since Dec. 11.

The Blues came out of the Christmas break with a 2-1 win over the Dallas Stars. St. Louis has won 3 straight and 5 of its last 6. Since Dec. 14, the Blues are 4-0 with 17 goals scored at home.

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Avalanche at Blues odds

BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:56 a.m. ET.

Avalanche at Blues projected goalies

Alexandar Georgiev (17-8-2, 3.00 GAA, .897 SV%) vs. Jordan Binnington (11-10-1, 3.28 GAA, .900 SV%)

Georgiev has already had a not-so-great 5 starts with a save percentage under .850. That’s the demarcation point for the dreaded Really Bad Start (RBS in hockey-stat parlance). The most recent of those was Wednesday when the 27-year-old Bulgarian netminder yielded 5 goals against Arizona.

Binnington also allowed 5 goals in his last start (and has yielded 10 over his last 92 minutes between the pipes. He owns an .862 SV% since Dec. 6.

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Avalanche at Blues picks and predictions

Prediction

Avalanche 3, Blues 2

These division foes have thus far split a pair of games in Denver. St. Louis has fared well at home (11-5-0) and is a lean, but the pricing here offers no leverage. PASS.

Two of the last 3 series meetings in St. Louis have resulted in 1-goal games. This battle has a likable Under, and against the Blues are a lean. FanDuel Sportsbook has St. Louis at -160 for the +1.5 play on the puck line. That’s the closest to value we can get on these sides, and that falls short of the getting-enough-value line (hold out for -155 or better?).

PASS.

Five of the last 7 games of this series have hit the Under.

Georgiev owns a .906 SV% over his last 6 starts against St. Louis. Binnington owns a .925 mark across his last 9 efforts against Colorado. And the Blues netminder has been much better this season in his home barn where he’s clocked a .907 SV%.

Colorado certainly has a dangerous offense. Its 3.66 goals per game rank 2nd in the league. And the Avs powerplay (24.6%) is a top-flight unit. But Colorado has registered a surprising 2.94 GPG on the road. The Avalanche has been held to 2G or less in 3 of its last 4 games away from home. And Colorado’s overall 11.4% shooting percentage is a figure ripe for regression.

St. Louis figures to somewhat mitigate Colorado’s PP advantage because the Blues do well to stay out of the box (NHL-low 6.8 minutes per game). For the season, St. Louis has coughed up a lot of high-danger looks (while posting a low save percentage on those shots) in 5-on-5 play. In their last 10 games, the Blues have cleaned up some of that issue and have trended toward being closer to league-average in that regard.

FanDuel Sportsbook offers the best leverage here: BACK THE UNDER 6.5 (+100).