Colts Mailbag: Odds 3 AFC South teams make playoffs, Alec Pierce doing the dirty work, Anthony Richardson update
Scott O'Neil, Elizabethtown, Ky.: If Houston, Jacksonville and us make it to the playoffs, is there any possibility we will play one of them in a playoff game?
JJ Stankevitz: Everything is on the table right now, Scott. Right now, the No. 7 seed Colts would face the No. 2 seed Miami Dolphins in the first round of the playoffs, with the No. 4 seed Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the Cleveland Browns and the Houston Texans out of the playoffs as the No. 8 seed.
But: The Colts, Jaguars and Texans are all 8-6 entering Week 16. The Jaguars own tiebreakers over the Colts, Texans and Colts and Texans (a three-way tie), so they have the upper hand to win the AFC South. Odds to win the division, per the New York Times' Upshot playoff simulator:
- Jaguars (61%)
- Colts (21%)
- Texans (17%)
Right now, the odds suggest the AFC's final playoff spot will come down to Week 18's Colts-Texans matchup. The Cleveland Browns have a 92 percent chance to make the playoffs as a wild card, while the Buffalo Bills are at 71 percent followed by the Colts (54 percent total playoff odds) and the Texans (46 percent). The Bengals (34 percent), Broncos (24 percent), Steelers (3 percent) and Raiders (2 percent) are all still in the mix, too.
But there are plenty of scenarios where the Colts and Texans enter Week 18 holding playoff spots, even if Jaguars are still winning the AFC South (most of them are convoluted but involve the Bengals, Bills and Broncos not reaching 10 wins). If three AFC South teams make the playoffs, though, the more likely outcome is either the Colts or Texans win the division, with the Jaguars earning a wild card berth. In this case, the Colts would likely be the AFC No. 4 seed and host the Cleveland Browns, who own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Jaguars and play the Texans in Cleveland this weekend.
One last thing. The Colts do technically still have a chance to earn the AFC's No. 1 seed. From NFL Next Gen Stats, the one-in-5,000 shot the Colts have at a first-round bye require:
- The Colts to win out and go 11-6
- The Ravens to lose out and go 11-6
- The Jaguars to go at best 2-1 and finish 10-7 or worse
- The Browns Chiefs and Dolphins to go 1-2 over their final three games
This would make the Colts outright champions of the AFC South, with the Colts, Ravens and Dolphins all 11-6. Because the Colts didn't play the Dolphins, head-to-head tiebreakers would be thrown out. But the Colts would hold the conference record tiebreaker over Baltimore (8-4 to 7-5) and a common games tiebreaker over the Dolphins (6-0 vs. 4-2).
Again: It's a longshot, but it's possible.
More than anything, it's just fun to talk through wonky playoff scenarios in late December again. And what you really need to know is if the Colts win out, they'll be in the playoffs – anywhere from the No. 7 seed to division champs to, yes, a first-round bye.
