Corner Picks: Expert picks, predictions, odds as Lazio host Roma, Manchester City head to Chelsea and more

cbssports.com

11 November 2023

Corner Picks: Expert picks, predictions, odds as Lazio host Roma, Manchester City head to Chelsea and more

I am hereby declaring Jude Bellingham a superstar. Yes, that's right, I'm going out on a limb to say that one of the best young players in the world is great. But when I say he's a superstar, I mean on the level of Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi.

Jude Bellingham could be the best player in the world for a long time.

I'm naturally hesitant whenever a young player receives hype, particularly a young English player. The world of social media is built on hyperbole, and words become meaningless, so it's easy to become immune to endless tweets about a player being THE GOAT or HIM. Then, when you add on the English layer, it becomes even more overblown, seeing as the British press dictates so much of the global coverage of the sport.

But, I'm convinced Bellingham is far more than a byproduct of social media and friendly press. Every time I watch him play, he's doing something incredible. He was brilliant at Borussia Dortmund and immediately stepped in to become the best player at Real Madrid. So much so that I wonder if Real Madrid's biggest problem is that they're far too reliant on Jude Bellingham. While this isn't the Galacticos era of Real Madrid, they're still freaking Real Madrid, yet so many of the times I see them play, there are world-class players in white looking at Bellingham and begging him to do something incredible to win the match for them.

More often than not, he does. Bellingham has scored 10 goals in 11 La Liga matches and three in the Champions League. He has the superstar knack of always being right where he's needed most at the perfect time. English fans have long awaited The Chosen One to lead them to a World Cup victory, and I honestly believe he's arrived.

Lazio vs. Roma

Speaking of Chosen Ones, Jose Mourinho and Roma are squaring off against Maurizio Sarri and Lazio in the Derby della Capitale this weekend. Not only do these teams share a city and a stadium, but they've almost had identical seasons as well. Both got off to very slow starts to the year but have recovered nicely since. Roma enter the weekend as winners of four of five in Serie A, while Lazio have won four of six. Of course, Lazio is fresh off a 1-0 loss to Bologna last week in an absolute kindergarten nap of a match.

When it comes to finding a winner here, though, I trust Lazio more, even coming off the loss. Not only have Lazio been far better defensively (they have an xG allowed of 2.5 over its last four matches), they've been more impressive against Italy's better teams. Roma's five Serie A wins this season have come against clubs who have combined for 60 points in 55 matches. The best team they've beaten has been ninth-place Monza. Oh, and half the 22 goals Roma scored came in two matches. The Pick: Lazio (+190)

Chelsea vs. Manchester City

I'm being a bit of a coward here. I'm taking big swings with our other two picks this week, and there's part of me tempted to take a third here, but I can't pull the trigger. Chelsea are better than their results suggest but could also be cursed. I don't know. Then there's Manchester City, who are not quite the juggernaut the world expects. Pep Guardiola's team is in first place in the Premier League, but it hasn't been dominant. Plus, while City have excellent xG numbers away from home, most were racked up early in the year against inferior competition.

City enter this match, having lost two of its last three away matches in league play. So, I wouldn't be shocked if Chelsea pulled off the stunning upset this weekend, leading to everybody declaring the club fixed and Mauricio Pochettino a genius. But I'm just going to bet on the over. If Chelsea win, it'll be because their output finally match their xG, and if City win, it'll probably do so by scoring three goals on their own. The Pick: Over 2.5 (-115)

Crystal Palace vs. Everton

I wouldn't go into Saturday morning expecting this bet to win, but there's a far greater chance it'll happen than the price suggests. As we enter the weekend, Crystal Palace sit in 11th place in the Premier League with 15 points, five spots ahead of Everton in 16th with 11 points. But Everton have been the better team. Crystal Palace have scored only 10 goals in 11 matches and have an expected goal differential of -3.2. Five of the goals they scored came in wins over Wolverhampton (14th place) and Burnley (19th). They've also won against Sheffield United (20th) and Manchester United (8th place, but it feels like 17th). Palace have been poor defensively nearly the entire season but have found results against bad teams.

Meanwhile, Everton have an expected goal differential of +2.8, which ranks ninth in the league despite where they sit in the table. They got off to a terrible start to the season (one draw in five matches while being outscored 9-2) but have played much better since beating Brentford 3-1 in late September. Defensively, this team has locked things down, and that will come in handy on the road this weekend. If Everton find a way to convert their chances (only 11 goals on 16.4 xG isn't simply bad luck), they can steal all three points here. The Pick: Everton (+215)

Weekend Parlay

Always fun when the parlay has a smaller payout than two of our three match picks, isn't it? Not much out there this weekend, but I like this four-leg parlay paying +110.