Corner Picks, soccer odds, best bets: Everton, Milan both win, lots of goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs. Mainz

cbssports.com

17 February 2023

Corner Picks, soccer odds, best bets: Everton, Milan both win, lots of goals in Bayer Leverkusen vs. Mainz

Drama surrounding Neymar or PSG is nothing new. Following this week's Champions League loss at home to Bayern Munich, the drama revolved around Neymar playing in a poker tournament following the loss and eating McDonalds. Two things I did plenty of in my early twenties and never saw much of a problem with.

Kylian Mbappe, Christopher Galtier and PSG disagree.

While I don't think this will be the last straw, the fact Mbappe is coming out and publicly criticizing Neymar for it -- even if indirectly -- caused me to raise an eyebrow. Mbappe openly flirted with leaving for Real Madrid last year, only to end up staying at PSG. Even in a team with Neymar and Lionel Messi, he's the future of the club and the most influential person there. Criticizing Neymar publicly strongly indicates that Neymar could be on the way out of Paris this summer, which leads to the next question.

Where could Neymar possibly go? He turned 31 earlier this month and is ridiculously expensive, so there are only two logical landing spots for him in today's soccer economy: the Premier League or Saudi Arabia. I don't think he'll follow Ronaldo to the desert just yet, but while the Premier League can afford him, would anybody want him?

Then it struck me like a lightning bolt: Chelsea. Chelsea loves to spend money on things it doesn't need without a concrete plan these days. I laughed to myself about the idea then and laughed much harder Friday morning when I saw this.

Everton vs. Leeds United

Wednesday's match between Arsenal and Manchester City was considered the biggest Premier League match of the season so far. I think everybody added the "so far" qualifier to it because this match between Everton and Leeds United had yet to be played. There's a lot of season left, and the relegation battle is tight in the Premier League, but based on the vibes, I can't help but believe Southampton are already dead in the water. I get the same sense about Bournemouth due to the number of injuries the Cherries are dealing with. So, realistically, only one relegation spot remains undecided, and these two are prime candidates.

However, when I do a vibe check, I like where Everton are much better. Yes, they got crushed by Liverpool earlier this week, but it was at Anfield, and Everton have been exceedingly awful away from home all season. That's where they will be this weekend against a Leeds team that still hasn't found a manager since firing Jesse Marsch and remains a mess defensively. I trust Sean Dyche to have his team ready for a match this important, and the home environment -- which has been toxic at times -- will help push the Toffees over the finish line Saturday. The Pick: Everton (+145)

Featured Game| Everton vs. Leeds United

Monza vs. AC Milan

You could call Monza a Cinderella story, just so long as you realize Cinderella is being financed by former AC Milan owner -- and Italian president! -- Silvio Berlusconi. This isn't your typical recently promoted Serie A team. Still, it's unusual to see recently promoted teams doing as well as Monza, which enters the weekend in 10th place in the league and has been a bit unlucky. Monza lost their first five Serie A matches but have turned things around. They haven't lost any of their last eight (four wins, four draws), but they have overperformed slightly in that span. Over those eight matches, Monza have scored 15 goals on an expected goals (xG) total of 13.3 while allowing eight goals on an xG of 9.1.

That could haunt them this week against AC Milan. Milan went through a rough stretch following the return from the World Cup that has knocked them out of the race for the Scudetto, but they're still fighting for a Champions League spot. However, the defense that fell off a cliff and led to the rut has returned. After allowing an average of 1.98 xG per match in a four-match stretch in Serie A, that number has dropped to 0.49 xG per match in its last three, including this week's 1-0 win over Tottenham in the Champions League. If that defensive solidity remains, against Monza this weekend, and given that it came from a tactical change to a back three, there's no reason to think it wouldn't, there's an excellent chance Milan return home with three points. The Pick: AC Milan (+109)

Featured Game| Monza vs. AC Milan

Bayer Leverkusen vs. Mainz

In a league where goals come easily, both of these teams could be considered among the less exciting teams in the Bundesliga. That said, any time I see a total of only 2.5 in a Bundesliga match with juice like this, it's worth exploring further. That's what I did here; the more I looked, the more I wanted to make this bet.

Leverkusen is stout defensively, but are much more aggressive at home. They average 1.8 xG at home compared to 1.1 on the road. On the other side, Mainz's offensive performance at home or away is essentially the same, but their defense fades drastically away from home. At home they allow an average xG of 1.1, but on the road, that number climbs to 1.7. Finally, the average Bundesliga match sees 3.24 goals scored. The average Leverkusen match includes 3.25 goals, while Mainz average 3.1. That 2.5 total looks lower and lower, doesn't it? The Pick: Over 2.5 (-135)