Cotton Bowl: Odds, Picks and Predictions
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In a bowl environment where motivation is a key factor in game prediction, there's a stark contrast between Missouri and Ohio State, who will meet for the Cotton Bowl Friday evening. Although Ohio State got some good news about potential opt-outs who are deciding to play, they'll be somewhat short-handed against a Missouri team that is almost entirely intact.
Spread: Ohio State -4.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
Total: 49 (BetMGM Sportsbok)
Moneyline: Ohio State -194 (FanDuel Sportsbook), Missouri +165 (BetMGM Sportsbook)
A lot of late money has been added to the Ohio State pile, which is likely due to the recent announcements of key pieces deciding to play. The line was as low as -3 at one point, and it could go as high as -5 by day's end. The total has been fairly consistent over the course of the week.
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Kyle McCord and Marvin Harrison are among the list of players opting out for Ohio State, and while Emeka Egbuka is more than capable of keeping the receiving game afloat, run-first QB Devin Brown is a definite downgrade for an offense that has sometimes struggled to find the end zone at full strength. There's no question that momentum and motivation are on Mizzou's side. One can feel the sense of faith in the future of this program, accentuated by guys headed for the portal who have committed to playing in this game. Coach Eli Drinkwitz should be credited for creating a positive environment and a team that has loads of future potential.
Even if both teams were at full strength, I doubt my pick would vary. We've already seen that team motivation is a huge intangible in the transfer portal era, as we often see shells of the former team take the field. That's not the case for the Tigers, who seem set on making a statement. The Buckeyes are still feeling the sting of a loss to Michigan, and based on the enthusiasm in some recent press conferences, the Cotton Bowl berth isn't really motivating this team. On paper, the Tigers' defense sets up well against the Buckeyes, who have failed to meet expectations in the running game, and against a run defense that ranks 32nd against opposing backs, Ohio State's struggles out of the backfield should continue. I don't buy Brown as a passer who can make much of a dent here, and the loss of McCord is going to really hurt this offense. I considered taking the Over, but I am concerned about how much the Buckeyes can contribute. I think this selection is pretty clear-cut. I'm taking Mizzou and the points.
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Putting these teams side-by-side lead one to believe that there's enough talent for Ohio State to prevail here, especially on defense. The Buckeyes have one of the best defenses in the country, but they've shown how they can be beaten down the stretch. With an offense headlined by Brady Cook, Cody Schrader and Luther Burden, the Tigers can ride the momentum and put up points, and the defense will force Devin Brown to beat Mizzou through the air. If Brown has success, this game could easily go the other way, but I believe in Mizzou's motivation to win.
