Crayon 301 Picks, Odds & Predictions 7/16/2023

New Hampshire Motor Speedway

Loudon, New Hampshire

After a long stretch of road courses and intermediate ovals, NASCAR heads back to the short track circuit this weekend for the Crayon 301. This is a flat oval that runs one mile and is also known as the bull ring. This is a flat track in the truest sense of the word. You'll find one degree of banking on both straightaways with the turns having two to seven degrees of banking in all the turns. The ability to pass or be passed on this track is extremely dependent on how the care holds turns and how it exits the turns. The patience and persistence of the driver and crew chief in making changes and adjusting to the current conditions of the track will make or break the chances of said driver doing well. Those drivers who aren't patient run the risk of wrecking via pushing the car too much and overdriving. This is the track where the adage, "race the track, not the competition" was created.

This weekend will be the only time this track is raced for the season after NASCAR took the other one away back in 2018. That said, the closest race to this that we can gather data on would be at Phoenix and Martinsville. They are both flat tracks that setup and handle much like New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Phoenix is a faster track than Loudon and Martinsville is smaller, but we should still be able to gather some intelligence into how drivers might perform this weekend.

Quaker State 400 Recap

Damage to his car or an early spin out could slow down William Byron and stop him from getting his fourth win of the season and cementing him at the top of the standings. Byron was able to make a move on AJ Allmendinger on Lap 167 to grab the lead with a storm approaching. He stayed at the front of the pack until a Turn 3 accident occurred, which brought out the seventh caution flag of the night on Lap 178.

With the caution in effect, drivers went around the track until Lap 185 when NASCAR brought the drivers into pit road and red flagged the race. The weather looked bad the sanctioning body of NASCAR called off the race with William Byron in front. It was his second win in Atlanta and the eighth win of his career at this track.

NASCAR Playoff Standings

With his fourth win of the year, William Byron is still leading the pack with 4 wins and 628 points. Kyle Busch is still in the second spot with 3 wins and 592 points. The red-hot Martin Truex Jr sits in the third spot with 2 wins and 607 points while Kyle Larson holds down the fourth spot with 2 wins and 531 points. Ross Chastain is still in 5th with 575 points and a win.

Crayon 301 Odds

Christopher Bell - +550
Martin Truex Jr. - +650
Denny Hamlin - +700
Kyle Larson - +900
Kyle Busch - +900
Kevin Harvick - +900
Chase Elliott - +1,100
William Byron - +1,200
Ryan Blaney - +1,400
Joey Logano - +1,500
Tyler Reddick - +1,800
Ross Chastain - +1,800
Brad Keselowski - +2,200
Aric Almirola - +2,800
Bubba Wallace - +2,800
Daniel Suarez - +3,500
Alex Bowman - +4,500
Ty Gibbs - +5,000
Ryan Preece - +5,500
Chris Buescher - +6,500

Joe Gibbs Racing has a great shot to do well once again this weekend. Out of the last five races at Loudon, JGR has finished runner-up in four of those races. Because of this, we like Martin Truex Jr. in this race. He had five top-10 finishes in New Hampshire in his first seven starts there. Then another two over the next 13 races there. He also did great last year leading 172 laps. We think he can continue his great season with a win here.

Tony's Pick: Take Martin Truex Jr. (+650)

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