Cricket betting tips: England v New Zealand 4th ODI preview and best bets
Cricket betting tips: ODI, England v New Zealand
0.5pt Rachin Ravindra top New Zealand batsman at 18/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Matt Henry top New Zealand batsman at 100/1 (Star Sports)
England’s stubborn refusal to back down in the face of adversity once again paid dividends at the Oval on Wednesday, as Ben Stokes brushed aside the loss of two early wickets to compile a daring, brutal England record 182 to power the hosts to a commanding victory.
New Zealand will be frustrated to have once again let slip a position of dominance, Trent Boult reducing England to 13-2 before they amassed 368, despite his five-wicket haul, having knocked over England’s top three in the previous match in Southampton before Liam Livingston pulled off a similarly brazen rearguard.
Given the preceding T20I series was drawn, and that the tourists won the first ODI easily, I certainly wouldn’t discount the prospect of the Kiwis bouncing back in the series finale at Lord’s. However, I got my fingers burnt at the Oval and must remember that these games are essentially warm-up matches for the impending World Cup, meaning it’s perhaps best to avoid taking too strong a stance at relatively prohibitive odds. Lesson learned, and all that.
The fact is, England’s batting is hard to weigh up at present. The management will surely do all they can to ensure Jason Roy gets a run-out at Lord’s, Joe Root needs some runs, while I wouldn't be surprised if Ben Stokes' knee is rested here to give Harry Brook a chance in the middle order. That top order clearly has some questions to answer but when the middle order keeps firing, England remain incredibly dangerous.
New Zealand didn’t help themselves at the Oval, however. Selecting Kyle Jamieson and Henry Nicholls – neither of whom are in the World Cup squad – severely weakened their XI and I’d be staggered if Matt Henry didn’t make a quick return here. Henry was a void bet when advised on Wednesday but has spent all summer in England, helping Somerset win the T20 Blast before continuing to impress, most recently in the T20I and ODI series against this opposition.
His style of bowling is well suited to English conditions, and I have the top Zealand bowler market between him and Boult, the latter having taken eight wickets in the last two games. Should Boult be rested for this match, which I wouldn’t really expect, a late bet on Henry, should he himself earn a recall, would be the recommendation.
Chris Woakes and Reece Topley did the damage with the ball on Wednesday but, like the Kiwis, England could well rotate their bowling attack again. Woakes has a fine overall record at Lord’s and is bowling beautifully, so he would merit obvious respect if indeed lining up.
With an end-of-season feel to the match, it’s hard to muster too much confidence in anything, and though the weather forecast is good, I wouldn’t want to make too many firm assumptions about the wicket given how much cricket this ground has hosted already this summer.
When you add that to the fact New Zealand’s top order, missing Kane Williamson, hasn't convinced on a consistent basis throughout this tour, throwing a few quid at the middle and lower order in the top Kiwi batsman market appeals as the way to go.
50-over cricket just looks a stride too fast for Will Young at the moment, particularly at the pace England play the game, while Devon Conway is struggling for his consistent best and the aforementioned Nicholls just looks out of his depth in this format. I can’t for the life of me work out why Glenn Phillips – top scorer with a typically classy 72 at the Oval – continues to bat down at number six when he excels at four in the T20 side.
Betway dangle the carrot with Phillips at 15/2, but I’m going to take two stabs at bigger prices on RACHIN RAVINDRA (18/1) and MATT HENRY (100/1).
Ravindra is one of the rookies of this New Zealand set-up, but I really like what I’ve seen so far, both with ball in hand and with the bat. I thought he struck the ball with real authority in a couple of cameos in the T20I series and then batted with some panache for his 22-ball 28 at the Oval.
Though only 23 years of age, Ravindra has six First Class hundreds to his name already and given what he’s shown in his short international career thus far, I’d bet he’ll go on to achieve much at the highest level. He’s certainly nowhere near reaching his ceiling and with Mitchell Santner still nursing a bruised knee, Ravindra should again bat at number seven.
If England were to get into that brittle Kiwi top order once more, seven could be a nice position from which to mount a counterattack, so taking a chance on Ravindra at 18/1 has upside, as does adding a very small wager on Henry at 100/1.
Henry can most certainly bat and it’s worth noting that he has made four fifties in Test cricket. He has a best of 48 not out in this format and though we’re clearly taking a shot in the dark here, it’s not beyond that realms of possibility that England make early inroads and Ravindra and Henry, batting at seven and eight, come in and have some fun against the slightly older ball.
Posted at 1535 BST on 14/09/2023
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