Cricket betting tips: South Africa v Australia ODI preview and best bets
Cricket betting tips: ODI, South Africa v Australia
2pts Anrich Nortje top South Africa bowler at 7/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Rassie van der Dussen top South Africa batsman at 7/2 (General)
1pt Rassie van der Dussen to make a half-century at 9/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2pts Aiden Markram to make a half-century at 5/2 (Boylesports)
2pts Mitchell Marsh to make a half-century at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
World Cup preparations ramp up when South Africa and Australia begin a five-match ODI series in Bloemfontein on Thursday.
Australia were much too strong in the T20I leg of the tour, waltzing to a bloodless 3-0 series victory, but South Africa now welcome back a number of their star performers and we should be in for a much closer contest in the 50-over format.
Big guns return to bolster South Africa
It was Australia’s muscular and powerful batting that proved the difference in the T20s, but I’m not sure their line-up for this longer format – in terms of batting, anyway – is any stronger, whereas the hosts will be delighted to see the likes of Quinton de Kock, Heinrich Klaasen and David Miller back in their XI.
I’ve long been a fan of this current Proteas side and though the T20I series was disappointing, it was primarily a second-string outfit they fielded for that, and you can add pacemen Anrich Nortje and Kagiso Rabada to the list of returnees on Thursday.
South Africa being available to back around the 5/4 mark is based in the main on that T20I series loss, but this is a different format, one in which South Africa impressed when beating a strong England team 2-1 at home in January.
Two of the matches in that series were played on this ground and they were high-scoring encounters, too, with the Proteas chasing down 343 for the loss of only five wickets in game two, having somehow defended 298 in the first match despite England at one stage finding themselves on 151-1 in their run chase.
We saw big runs in Durban for the T20s and I see no reason why the ODIs won’t offer something similar. With so few firms pricing up the specials markets for non-England games, I’ll leave any both teams to score bets off the staking plan, but for those happy and able to shop around, both teams to score 280/290 and 300 runs are well worth considering at big prices.
Reliable RVD the percentage call
For now, I’ll continue to work on the basis there are runs to be made in Bloemfontein and RASSIE VAN DER DUSSEN, who made a brilliant 111 on this ground in that aforementioned series against England, rates a solid option in the top South Africa batsman market.
In a team packed full of power players, van der Dussen is something of an anomaly, very much playing the anchor role, and while he could on occasion be charged with being a touch selfish, that is no bad thing for bettors in this market.
The frenetic pace of modern-day T20 cricket can occasionally catch van der Dussen out, but he's a completely different beast in this format and a career average of 60.58, with four hundreds and 11 fifties from only 45 matches, is a staggering record.
Rarely does a ODI series pass by without van der Dussen making a big score and though I was hoping for slightly bigger than the general 7/2 on offer, that price is probably fair with his record and position at number three in the South Africa batting order taken into account.
If van der Dussen can get himself in and set, there is every chance he can go big while his teammates bat around him, and backing him to make a fifty at 9/4 also represents decent business. I’ll split stakes on both.
In-form duo backed to excel
Sticking with the half-century market, AIDEN MARKRAM and MITCHELL MARSH both make plenty of appeal having impressed greatly in the preceding T20I series.
Markram was one of the few shining lights for the hosts, finishing with typically classy contributions of 49 and 41, and though his ODI record is nowhere near as impressive as van der Dussen’s, I’d argue that he has really matured as a cricketer in the last couple of years. Furthermore, his last five scores in ODIs read 49, 39, 25, 51* and 175 – albeit that last innings came against the Netherlands.
The 28-year-old looks to be hitting the ball really well at present and, confirmed to bat in his favourite position at number four, it seems safe to assume he’ll get a fair crack at a relatively long innings. 5/2 with Boylesports to make a fifty on what is expected to be a flat pitch is not passed over.
Almost identical comments apply to Marsh who dominated the T20I series, striking at 186.00 as he reeled off scores of 92*, 79* and 15, relishing the quick pitches and fast bowling that are a staple of cricket in South Africa.
A Perth native, Marsh is at his best against pace, though he showcased his continued development with a strong showing in the Ashes in England which featured a brilliant hundred at Headingley.
There’s every reason to think he’ll continue to thrive in these conditions and with prices north of 3/1 in the top Australia batsman market in short supply, taking the 2/1 available (Coral, Ladbrokes) for him to make a fifty in the match looks the best way to go.
Though the general theme of this preview has been the expectation that bat will dominate, perhaps the best bet of the lot is ANRICH NORTJE to be the top South Africa bowler at 7/2.
Nortje picked up the gong in both games on this ground against England in January, claiming 4-62 and 2-64, and he continues to prove a better bet in this market than the likes of Rabada and Lungi Ngidi.
Nortje’s strike-rate (27.1) in this format comfortably trumps Rabada (33.4) and Ngidi (29.1), and his average is better, too. In both white-ball formats, Nortje has a strong record against Australia, adding further weight to the argument.
I can’t for the life of me understand why Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook make Nortje, the quickest bowler on either side, their third choice in this particular market and strongly suspect those 7/2 quotes will have long gone towards the end of the series.
Posted at 1555 BST on 06/10/2023
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