Cricket betting tips: T20 Blast Finals Day preview and best bets for Edgbaston

Cricket tips: T20 Blast Finals Day

2pts Surrey to win the T20 Blast at 5/2 (General)

SURREY have been one of the standout sides in the T20 Blast over the last two seasons, and they can get their just rewards on Saturday as Edgbaston once again hosts Finals Day.

Surrey topped the South Group in 2022 before losing a thrilling match against Yorkshire at the quarter-finals stage, a host of international call-ups doing them no favours and spoiling what had otherwise been a terrific campaign.

They have again looked strong this season, finishing third behind Somerset and Hampshire in the South Group and shaping like an even better outfit than that final finishing position would suggest.

In fact, Surrey began in tremendous fashion – winning seven out of their first nine fixtures, including comfortably beating Somerset and Hampshire. Since then, they have endured a slight dip in form, at home more than away, but they booked their ticket to Finals Day with a very good win over Lancashire at Old Trafford, and I haven’t lost any faith in them.

Strong batting makes Surrey the team to beat

In Will Jacks, Laurie Evans and Jason Roy, Surrey boast a dynamic and powerful top three that boasts a wealth of franchise and international experience, and a young player in Jacks who appears headed for the very top. With Sam Curran controlling things in the middle order, and power down the order from the likes of Jamie Overton and Sean Abbott, this batting line-up is particularly strong.

As with any T20 side, Surrey will look to that top three to do the bulk of the scoring, but at different points in the season, different names in the middle and lower order have stepped up to do the job, and that makes them such a dangerous outfit. Though listed to bat at number nine against Lancashire, Abbott struck a brilliant century against Kent earlier in the campaign and has been making runs in the County Championship. Surrey most certainly bat deep.

Sunil Narine’s absence on Finals Day – due to commitments in America of all places – is a blow, but Curran, Jacks, Chris Jordan are all England internationals, I’d bet that Dan Moriarty will be one day, while Gus Atkinson has enjoyed a strong competition thus far. As bowling attacks go, that isn't too shabby.

I think Surrey can overcome Narine’s absence, and I really like how much international experience there is within the squad – something that is always a huge plus on Finals Day. Curran was Man of the Match in the T20 World Cup final not so long ago, Roy is a 50-over World Cup winner, Abbott a serial Big Bash winner with the Sydney Sixers. You can't buy that experience.

The league table might suggest Surrey have drawn the toughest semi-final against Somerset, but I don’t see it that way and on the big stage, I’m betting that their stars will step up. I make Surrey a bet at 5/2 to go all the way and be crowned T20 Blast champions on Saturday night.

For those still not yet convinced, don’t be put off by Surrey only finishing third in the South Group. Hampshire finished fourth in the same group last year, before dominating on Finals Day. Sometimes the table does lie, and Surrey are the team to beat.

Can Somerset finally deliver?

Somerset are always a conundrum. It’s hard to argue with their impressive league campaign – 12 wins and only two losses is some going. But we’ve been here before, haven’t we? They were favourites to beat Hampshire in the semi-finals last year after their demolition job over Derbyshire in the previous round, only to fluff their lines and limp out of the competition. Twelve months earlier, they lost to Kent in the final.

All eyes will be on opening pair, Tom Banton and Will Smeed, but I can’t say I’ve really bought into the hype around either. Banton doesn’t move his feet well enough against the moving ball, and though a much better prospect, I still don’t believe Smeed is bombproof.

If there is anything in the surface at Edgbaston, Surrey can take early wickets, whereas their own top order looks more versatile if the new ball does dart around.

With the excellent Matt Henry and Craig Overton sharing the new ball, followed by experienced support, Somerset might think they have the edge with the ball, but Surrey’s batting line-up will keep coming and can outmuscle Somerset whatever the conditions.

Sadly, there is no northern representation on Finals Day after Birmingham Bears lost by two wickets to Essex in a thrilling last-eight clash.

Essex are such a streetwise outfit who shouldn’t be underestimated. I like how they set up, with Dan Lawrence anchoring the innings at number three and Adam Rossington and Michael Pepper taking the game on. They bat deep, too, with Matt Critchley and Daniel Sams providing plenty of power down the order.

Hampshire continue bold title defence

You could argue that Essex are too big at 6/4 to progress past Hampshire, but last year’s champions are very similar in that they have that priceless ability to win close matches and get themselves out of sticky situations, particularly with the ball.

That bowling attack is excellent and experienced. Nathan Ellis is a gun death bowler who played plenty of cricket at this year’s IPL. Chris Wood and James Fuller have been two of the competition’s most consistent performers with the ball and Liam Dawson is fine all-format spinner who rarely leaks runs.

The Hampshire batting has obvious quality, headed by captain James Vince who is once again the leading tournament runscorer, and he continues to receive solid support from Ben McDermott. Whether Hampshire have quite the same level of depth lower down the order as Essex I'm not so sure, but this is still a very good side.

As such, this first semi-final has all the ingredients of a classic, for all the winners will have their work cut out if meeting Surrey in the final, and I see no reason to complicate matters ahead of what promises to be another exciting Finals Day in Birmingham. It's Surrey all the way for me.

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