Croatia v Spain tips: Nations League final best bets and preview

Football betting tips: Nations League final

1pt Croatia to win the Nations League at 13/8 (BetVictor)

1pt Gavi to be shown a card at 12/5 (bet365)

0.5pts Luka Modrić to have an assist at 6/1 (Ladbrokes)

0.5pts Gavi to be the first player booked at 11/1 (bet365)

A typically determined extra time victory over the Netherlands earned Croatia a place in this UEFA Nations League final, perhaps a last chance at silverware for a generation that surely deserves a piece.

Luka Modrić, Mateo Kovačić and Marcelo Brozović continue to dominate games in midfield. They should, and will, head into this unafraid to do so again.

Spain obviously have an excellent recent history in the very same area of the pitch, and although Luis de la Fuente's side were much-improved in their 2-1 semi-final win over Italy, they don't strike the same fear into opponents.

Kick-off time: 19:45 BST, Sunday

TV channel: Channel 4, Viaplay Sports 1

There were many occasions when Italy could have punished Spain in transition, and even in possession play, just lacking some composure in the final third.

That's not to say the likes of Jorginho, Davide Frattesi and Nicolò Barella were poor, quite the opposite in fact, but it does show that Spain can be got at.

Joselu's late winner papered over some cracks for a team that looked fairly average in the opening games under their new manager.

With that in mind, Spain appear a bit skinny, which makes CROATIA TO WIN THE NATIONS LEAGUE the first selection at 13/8.

Italy may have only scored from the penalty spot against Spain, but they did cause a high line some problems in Wednesday's match-up.

Indeed, it was a lifted ball over the top that led to the spot-kick.

As mentioned, Croatia can match — perhaps better — any team in the world for quality in midfield and LUKA MODRIĆ rates a bet to record TO HAVE AN ASSIST, possibly from a similar scenario.

Modrić is more than capable of fashioning some space and picking apart a vulnerable, high defensive line. If Croatia do manage to win the trophy, it's not a stretch to suggest the captain will be the catalyst.

Additionally, I can't pass up the opportunity to add GAVI TO BE SHOWN A CARD to the staking plan at a price of 12/5, with too many ahead of him in the betting.

The fact he received a yellow in the semi-final will not put me off a repeat here. Spain had some success with pressing against Italy and Gavi, one of the primary candidates to start the press, is a loose cannon when it comes to tackling an opponent.

Gavi conceded four fouls against Italy and has been reckless in that area since the day he made his debut.

Backing Barcelona's youngster to get in the book again is a play, as is the 11/1 available at bet365 about GAVI being the FIRST PLAYER BOOKED in the game.

Croatia v Spain best bets and score prediction

• 1pt Croatia to win the Nations League at 13/8 (BetVictor)
• 1pt Gavi to be shown a card at 12/5 (bet365)
• 0.5pts Luka Modrić to have an assist at 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
• 0.5pts Gavi to be the first player booked at 11/1 (bet365)

Score prediction: Croatia 2-2 Spain (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)

Odds correct at 1430 BST (16/06/23)

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