Crystal Palace vs Liverpool predictions: Premier League tips
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool betting tips:
If there’s one certainty about this match, it’s that Jurgen Klopp will be irate about the kick off time, with his side having played at Sheffield United on Wednesday evening. This will be Liverpool’s 24thleague match starting at 12:30pm (TNT Sports 1) since the start of the 2019/20 season, at least three more than any other team, with 16 of them having been away from Anfield.
On this occasion, the tight turnaround will be the same for Crystal Palace, who played in the same slot as the Reds last weekend and then hosted Bournemouth on Wednesday. But can the Eagles make home advantage count here?
Football betting sites don’t think so, with Liverpool strong favourites to take the three points. Their record both in away games at Palace and against teams led by their former manager Roy Hodgson goes a long way to explaining why.
Reds to win but at a cost
Whenever pundits talk about Selhurst Park, there’s a cliché that is certain to be uttered: it’s a tough place to go.
Yet Palace’s home results against the Premier League’s established big six clubs don’t really bear that out. You can be certain that the 3-3 draw between these teams will get a mention in the build-up too, even though it was nine years ago and the visitors would likely have won easily if they weren’t trying to chase down goal difference.
Since the start of 2016/17, the Eagles have played 44 league games at Selhurst Park against Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and the two Manchester clubs. They have won just five times, with nine draws and 30 defeats. A 2-0 loss to Bournemouth on Wednesday leaves them fourth bottom of the Premier League home table for this season too.
Against Klopp’s Reds specifically, last season’s goalless draw in this fixture came on the back of seven consecutive defeats for Palace, with the 7-0 drubbing three years ago this month a particular low point.
Their clash in February was the last time Patrick Vieira took a point for the Eagles, with the three defeats which followed ending his time at the club. While Hodgson improved things last season and has Palace in mid-table this term, he has lost his last eight meetings with the Reds by an aggregate score of 25-5.
If there is hope for the home side it is in Liverpool’s patchy record on the road since the start of last season. The Reds have won nine matches, only a shade more than half as many as Arsenal (17) or Manchester City (15).
Palace can be confident of scoring at least, as Liverpool had no clean sheets in their eight league away games prior to their 2-0 win at Bramall Lane in midweek. The absence of Alisson Becker has exposed that Caoimhin Kelleher, while a capable back up, cannot bail out the Reds’ defence with anything like the same regularity.
With Liverpool having the best chance generating attack in the division but an injury-hit back line, we've picked out the Reds to win but both teams scoring from betting apps.
Salah to find the net
Mohamed Salah loves accumulating goal contributions against Crystal Palace. Of the 18 clubs he’s faced at least seven times with Liverpool, only against Watford (1.43) and Manchester United (1.36) has he averaged more goals and assists per 90 minutes than he has against the Eagles (1.27).
The Egyptian made a memorable mark in this fixture in 2020/21. Despite only coming off the bench for the final 33 minutes, he still found time to score twice and provide an assist.
Liverpool’s number 11 should be aided by no side facing a higher proportion of opposition shots from the right side of their box than Palace have this term. That’s prime Salah real estate, and while he didn’t have a great game at Sheffield United, he was withdrawn midway through the second half.
He’ll be raring to go here and without a goal in three league games, Salah stands out in the Premier League odds to potentially make Palace pay.
Don’t expect corners
Liverpool are among the leading sides in the division for the total number of corners in their games, behind only United and Tottenham. Palace are near the bottom of this table, though their matches have averaged 0.5 more this season compared with 2022/23.
The Reds’ figures on the road have been erratic but make more sense once you dig a little deeper. There were 17 and 14 in their matches at Tottenham and Newcastle respectively, but they had a man or two sent off in both games, allowing the home sides to amass more than they otherwise might have.
In their away games against broadly mid-table sides – Brighton, Chelsea and Wolves – there were either eight or nine each time. As none of the last three meetings between these teams saw more than eight, we're backing under 8.5 corners with BoyleSports as our final Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction.
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Andrew Beasley is a widely published football writer and voluntary numbers enthusiast. His love of stats provides him with a wealth of insight which can be applied to betting. He provides football betting tips for The Independent.
