Cuba vs. Panama: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions
Cuba vs. Panama Odds
On Thursday, Cuba and Panama will meet at Taichung Intercontinental Baseball Stadium as part of pool play in the World Baseball Classic. First pitch is scheduled for 11:30 p.m. EST on FS1.
Cuba enters play this evening 0-2 so far in the tournament. They will hand the ball to Ronald Bolaños to start the game, looking to get in the win column for the first time this week. Panama has split their first two contests, beating Taiwan 12-5 and losing to Netherlands 3-1. They will have Andy Otero on the hill to start this evening’s contest.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced Cuba as -165 favorites on the moneyline in this matchup, with over/under on the total set at 8 runs.
Cuba
Background on Balaños
Ronald Bolaños appeared in eight games for the Kansas City Royals last season, posting a 4.42 ERA, 6.13 xERA, 5.68 FIP, 13.8% strikeout percentage, 13.8% walk-rate and a 1.75 WHIP in 8.2 innings of work. Prior to being called up, he had a 6.26 ERA, 5.33 FIP, 17.5% strikeout percentage, 9.3% walk-rate, and a 1.85 WHIP in Triple A.
Simply, Bolaños has struggled mightily with his command at nearly every stop in his minor league career. His inability to limit traffic on the basepaths makes him a risky option for bettors to trust, whether he tosses one inning or three innings.
Big bats struggling for Cuba
Through two games, Luis Robert Jr. and Yoan Moncada are a combined 2-for-17 with 11 runners left-on-base for Cuba. As a result, this group has struggled as a whole, posting the second-worst OPS of any team thus far in the tournament, only better than China, which had to face Shohei Ohtani in their first contest.
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Panama
Panama turning to Otero
Last season, the 30-year-old Andy Otero compiled 68.1 innings of work across Double A and Triple A in the minor leagues as part of the Milwaukee Brewers organization. Otero finished the year with a 3.42 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 17.4% strikeout percentage, and an 8.3% walk-rate.
Throughout his career, Otero has always had good command, which should translate well in this spot against a weak-hitting Cuba offense. If Otero can simply throw strikes, he should be able to get Panama through the first couple of innings with limited damage done against them.
Offense lacks major upside
Despite scoring 12 runs in their first pool play game, this remains an offense that is woefully deficient relative to their peers in this tournament. Jhonny Santos, Luis Castillo, and Jahdiel Santamaria have each performed well through two games, with a 1.096 OPS or better. Still, their long-term statistics from other samples suggest that those numbers will be difficult to sustain. This lineup also lacks high-end talent, with zero high-powered bats from the MLB or KBO on this roster.
Cuba vs. Panama – Picks & Predictions
Luis Robert Jr. and Yoan Moncada have each started pool play with underwhelming results, but they could be in for a better day against Panama, facing southpaw Andy Otero to begin the game. In his MLB career, Robert Jr. owns a .349 batting average and a .909 OPS against left-handed pitching, compared to a .273 batting average and a .755 OPS against right-handed pitching. Moncada had a .241 batting average and a .788 OPS in 2022 against lefties, compared to a .204 batting average and a .582 OPS against righties.
Panama’s starter, Andy Otero, struggled mightily against right-handed hitters last year in the minor leagues, with a 1.50 WHIP at Triple A and a 1.74 WHIP at Double A.
If Robert Jr. and Moncada, both of whom will bat right-handed against Otero, can bust out of their mini-slump, they could help Cuba get on the board early in this spot. Take a very small stab on Cuba to get on the board in the top of the first inning on Thursday at significant plus-money.
PICK: Cuba to score in the top of the 1st (+195, Bet365)
