Cubs vs. Athletics prediction, odds: Can Waldichuk end Oakland skid?

We have a Cubs vs. Athletics prediction as Chicago looks to extend its winning streak to three games. The Cubs cruised to a 10-1 victory in the series opener, handing Oakland its fifth straight loss.

At 3-14, the Athletics have the worst record in the league, and it doesn’t look like they’re any closer to turning things around. However, the last time Oakland won a game, Ken Waldichuk was on the mound.

The Athletics will hope the southpaw can be the elixir to their woes as Waldichuk faces Chicago’s Marcus Stroman. Stroman is off to a great start this season, with just two earned runs in 18 innings of work.

This preview will examine whether Athletics can pull off the upset as heavy underdogs.

Moneyline: CHC (-190) vs. OAK (+158)

Spread: CHC -1.5 (-115) vs. OAK +1.5 (-105)

Total: Over 7.5 (-120) | Under 7.5 (+100)

Cubs F5 RL -0.5 / -128

CHC — Marcus Stroman (2-1, 1.00 ERA) vs. OAK — Ken Waldichuk (0-2, 10.20 ERA)

It’s tough to get behind this Athletics team because they do not have the roster to put a competitive product out on the field. Oakland has a -72 run differential, almost double the second-worst team in the league (Colorado is -38).

Interestingly, the Athletics lineup hasn’t been as bad as you might think. According to FanGraphs, it ranks 27th with a .300 wOBA and it’s 20th with a slightly below-average wRC+ value of 94. There are three teams in league with a wRC+ value of no more than 75.

But where the Athletics struggle is with their pitching. Oakland ranks dead last in just about every key metric you want to consider, whether it’s ERA (7.74), FIP (6.65), BB/9 (5.28) or HR/9 (1.98).

Waldichuk deserves his share of the blame, as he has a 10.20 ERA, 9.52 FIP, 4.20 BB/9 and 4.20 HR/9. However, he did have a quality start in his last outing after allowing three runs on five hits in 6 1/3 innings of work.

While Waldichuk didn’t allow a home run in the game, he still issued three free passes. As a result, I’ll need to see a bit more from him before I can conclude that he’s officially turned the corner.

If we turn to Stroman, he’s been outstanding in his three starts. And while his 2.60 FIP and 2.88 xERA point to a slight regression, those numbers are still regarded as elite.

Stroman is doing an incredible job keeping the ball on the ground, as evidenced by his 5.80 GB/FB ratio. According to Statcast, opposing hitters have an average -0.3 launch angle and a barrel rate of 0.0%.

Those are all great inputs for a successful formula; thus, I’m not willing to look past Stroman in this spot. However, instead of paying a premium with the Cubs on the moneyline, I recommend backing them on the first five run line.

The Cubs are tied for fifth with a wRC+ value of 136 when facing left-handers, and I like their chances of punishing Waldichuk should he continue to struggle with his command.