Cubs vs Mets Prediction, Picks, Odds

New York's offense is colder than a corner store slushie and will now be tasked with keeping up with the scorching Cubbies. Kodai Senga is making books slightly lean toward the Mets, but our MLB picks will happily take Chicago at plus money.

What a surge we have seen from the Chicago Cubs, who enter this three-game set against the New York Mets as winners in seven of their last 10 games — including taking two of three against Atlanta over the weekend.

With that recent stretch of success, they're now just 1.5 games back from first place in the NL Central. While the Cubbies have flourished, the Mets have faltered, which isn't surprising after a mini sell off before the trade deadline. New York's trio of losses over the weekend to the Baltimore Orioles brings baseball's highest payroll to 11 games below .500. 

Despite both sides trending in opposite directions, MLB odds have labeled Chicago at slight plus money — and my MLB picks for the Cubs vs. Mets will happily take the extra value.

Cubs vs Mets odds

Cubs vs Mets predictions

I may be as high on this Chicago Cubs team as anyone, so much so that I snagged a few futures on them months ago — including a World Series bet at 100-1. This team is dangerous, well-built, and playing great baseball. It's being felt in their clubhouse too.

"The thing I love about this team is the resiliency, the character, the consistency with which they come in every single day, who they are as humans," Cubs' manager David Ross said. "I said this in spring training: They're a fun group to be around."

This attitude and play pales in comparison to what we've seen from the New York Mets, who are winless since the trade deadline. The matchups matter — and we'll dive into them here — but at this moment I'm in full fade of the Mets along with full backing of the Cubs. 

It's tough to believe the Cubs are plus money tonight. My projections priced it as -104, so while there's not a massive modeled advantage, it's surprising. I know that Kodai Senga will take the mound for the Mets tonight, and he's been quite good... but this is not the best matchup for him.

Chicago spent most of the year in the cellar in whiff rate but now has the 13th lowest in baseball, which is slightly above average. That's significant when facing a pitcher like Senga, who is so strikeout reliant with a whiff rate and K-rate in the Top 20% of the league.

He has struggled with teams that can make contact on the ball more than average teams. The Washington Nationals are the most noteworthy, ranking first in zone contact rate and last in whiff rate. In April, the Nats gave Senga his first loss on the season when they plated three earned runs in five innings.

The other side is what New York will face when Drew Smyly takes the mound for Chicago. This Mets offense has struggled so much lately (last in runs per game over the previous three) and on the season (20th in runs overall) that I can only imagine it will take a few runs to win tonight.

Smyly should have some solid success holding them down. The 34-year-old veteran has followed a strong pattern of a good start followed by a bad start, and he's coming off one of his worst after allowing five earned runs to the Cincinnati Reds. Smyly relies heavily on two breaking pitches, with the curveball being the most relied on. New York will have one player in its lineup with a positive run value against the curveball this season.

The Cubs plated three earned runs on six hits against Senga earlier this season. Given how much the Mets' offense has struggled this year, it may not take much more than that to win tonight. I can't turn down a plus money price here, given the vastly different directions these two team's seasons have gone.

My best bet: Cubs moneyline (+102 at DraftKings)

Cubs vs Mets same-game parlay

Smyly to record a win

Smyly Under 2.5 earned runs

No runs scored in first inning

This one shouldn't require much explaining as it's highly correlated and relatively straightforward for what I expect tonight.

I took Cubs moneyline as my best bet and went further to grab Smyly to record a win. Additionally, I added him to hold the Mets to two earned runs or less. 

This one just is simple. I'll continue to fade this terrible Mets' offense until proven otherwise. I mentioned their struggles against the curveball, and Smyly should expose that tonight. This lineup will have only one player that hits for the league average or better against it in Brandon Nimmo. As far as the runs allowed? Forget scoring three runs against the starting pitcher... New York has failed to score at least three runs in a game in three of its previous five games. I see little change on that front.

My last leg is no run scored in the first inning. The Mets' offensive stuff speaks for itself, but Senga should have an excellent chance to do what he does early. Chicago scores the eighth least runs in baseball in the first inning and scores the sixth least in that metric when it goes on the road. Conversely, Senga has not allowed a first-inning run in four consecutive starts. 

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Cubs vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I've made it abundantly clear how I feel about tonight's matchup from a side perspective. I am rolling with the Cubs. 

It's hard to turn down such a solid situational spot, even in a sport like baseball with wide one-game variance. The Cubbies are rolling and are enjoying playing baseball right now. Things couldn't be more the opposite for the Mets. They want the season to end, and their play has shown that.

I like the Under tonight, but I'm going to pass on it. My projections followed directly in line with the flat 9.0 at -105 we've received at many books. I don't need to pick on New York much more. You get the picture. Its offense has been abysmal, and it's scored more than just three runs once in August.

My concern with backing the Under is that this Cubs' offense has been the best in baseball over the last month. They are just ahead of the Atlanta Braves from a runs-scored perspective and could do much of the heavy lifting on this total. From a trend perspective, these two teams have seen games on Under in five of the last ten games, so there's little of an edge there. All of that is enough for me to stay away.

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Trend to know

The Cubs have won four of the last five games head-to-head with the New York Mets. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs Mets

Cubs vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Drew Smyly (8-7, 4.71 ERA) I get Smyly's ERA isn't impressive, but the metrics don't track along with it. Two starts ago, Smyly shut down the St Louis Cardinals: he's also done it against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins. I'm bullish on what Smyly can provide late this season for Chicago, but with that said, he'll be looking to rebound from allowing five earned runs against the Cincinnati Reds in his most recent start. 

Kodai Senga (7-6, 3.25 ERA) It's been a tremendous first season for Senga, and none of his success has been luck induced. His expected FIP and ERA fall directly in line with his actual numbers, which speaks powerfully. Senga has been terrific at generating the swing and miss. Whatever number you want to look at, from K to whiff rate, all impress and sit in the Top 25% of the league. The walks have been a real issue occasionally, but his staff has mostly been able to overcome that.