Derby prep trends: Frontrunners, long shots influence Rebel

Frontrunners and stalkers have dominated the Rebel Stakes. For ninerunnings in a row, winners of the mid-winter, Grade 2 race at Oaklawn never weremore than two lengths behind at any call during the 1 1/16-mile race.

Then came Un Ojo.

It was not like the gelding with one eye came from theclouds, but he was 3 1/2 lengths behind through the first quarter-mile beforeclosing to win last year at historically long odds of 75-1. In the recenthistory of the Rebel, that was downright exceptional.

Calling Un Ojo a fluke is especially convenient since he hasnot finished better than fourth in three races since. Should handicappers drawthe proverbial line through that, disregard last February and expect this editionof the 50-20-15-10-5 points prep for Kentucky Derby 2023 to return to normalwhen it is run again Saturday?

These were the past-performance lines on the Rebel winnerssince 2000, according to Equibase:

Reincarnate and Verifying, who are likely to attract a lotof the betting in the 11-horse renewal this weekend, would be reason enough tothink the Rebel will regress to its more familiar, pace-favoring mean.

Reincarnate, who was transferred this week from trainer BobBaffert to Tim Yakteen, led at all but one call in his two victories, includinglast month’s Sham (G3) at Santa Anita. Verifying, from the Brad Cox stable,stalked the early pace on the way to an allowance win last month at Oaklawnthat earned him a 97 Beyer Speed Figure, according to Daily Racing Form.

More servings of recent history offer a tantalizinglydifferent story. Consider how many long shots – make that long, long shots –have hit the board in the Rebel. Five of the last seven runnings, including oneof the two divisions in the oversubscribed year 2019, had a horse with win oddsof at least 18-1 in the top three. Thirteen of the last 21 had an in-the-moneyhorse that went off at 15-1 or longer, as noted in this compilation from racecharts posted at Equibase:

The noteworthy value horses went beyond Un Ojo. Theyincluded 82-1 Excession, second in 2020; 48-1 Market King, third in 2019’ssecond division; 112-1 Sonneteer, second in 2017; and the victorious pair WillTake Charge at 28-1 in 2013 and Win Willy at 56-1 in 2009.

American Pharoah in 2015 and Nadal in 2020, both trained by Baffert,were the only favorites to have won the Rebel since the Kentucky Derby launchedits qualifying-points system 10 years ago.

Pharoah also proved to be exceptional by winning the Rebeland the Derby, as shown in this list of horses who ran in both races since2000:

The designations from the Quirin Speed Points showedsomething in common between the only three horses who came out of the Rebel andwon the Derby. American Pharoah, Smarty Jones in 2004 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983took a stalking style to Churchill Downs. Forward placing early in their runsfor the roses won them the big prize.

The media guide compiled by Churchill Downs said the Rebelsent 59 horses to the Derby since 1980. When Barber Road finished third last year,he was only the ninth in that span to have hit the board in Louisville.

One constant that will not resonate with this year’s Rebelis Baffert. His eight victories in the race are a record for trainers, but he willbe on the outside looking in Saturday. He lost a court fight this month in abid to reverse a Churchill Downs ban over the late Medina Spirit’s failed, post-Derbydrug test in 2021. The move to Yakteen allowed Reincarnate to be eligible forthe qualifying points that come with the Rebel.

Shouldhorseplayers lean on the likes of Reincarnate or Verifying to maintain thesuccess rates for frontrunners? Or do they look for the next coming of Un Ojo?The lens of history certainly leaves Rebel bettors in a quandary.