Detroit Pistons: Predicting stat lines for the rookies
The Detroit Pistons added two more first-round picks to the roster and we’ll get to see them in action soon.
Summer League is set to begin tomorrow, giving Detroit fans a first, true look at the newest Pistons. While the competition may not be that of regular season play, it still provides an opportunity for the young Pistons to play alongside one another, giving a glimpse into what could be.
So, let’s make some predictions on Detroit’s two rookies and their end of season stat lines. We will revisit these predictions periodically throughout the year to see how we did, and see just how the rookies progressed.
Detroit Pistons: Predicting stat lines for the rookies
Ausar Thompson: 6-foot-7 SF, Overtime Elite
2022-2023 Overtime Elite Stat Line: 16.3 PPG, 6.1 APG, 7.1 RPG, 2.4 SPG, 29.8% 3pt FG
Predicted Rookie Stat Line : 8.6 PPG, 5.6 APG, 6.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG, 31.7% 3pt FG
Ausar’s stat line is more difficult to predict than most other top ten picks as there is a high likelihood he will not start for Detroit this season.
Depending on some final roster moves, Ausar Thompson may be afforded the luxury of coming off the bench, providing help with what he excels at and time to improve elsewhere. This will likely be to Ausar’s benefit as even if he is older than most other rookies, his shooting still has to improve before he is to be trusted as a starter in the NBA. His mechanics are promising, but immediate contributions from shooting are very unlikely.
Even if his true shooting doesn’t come around for quite some time, Thompson’s scoring shouldn’t be much of an issue due to his athleticism and slashing/transition game. His quickness and vertical abilities will assist him tremendously while adapting to professional competition.
In addition to his cutting and scoring, Thompson’s calling card and main source of contributing this season will be his athleticism and defense. While I don’t expect Ausar to start his NBA career defending the best player on the court, he definitely has the potential to. From day 1, Thompson will improve Detroit’s defensive scheme immensely.
While Ausar’s rookie campaign may be headlined by freak-like, athletic plays or finishes at the rim, unfortunately for him, what Thompson immediately brings to the Detroit Pistons may not be reflected on the stat sheet. Without diving deep into advanced stats, his rookie contributions may be harder to directly identify and look worse than they actually are.
Marcus Sasser – 6’1 PG, Houston
2022-2023 Houston Stat Line – 16.8 PPG, 3.1 APG, 2.8 RPG, 1.6 SPG, 38% 3pt FG
Predicted Rookie Stat Line – 5.6 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 39.4% 3pt FG
Marcus Sasser is difficult to predict for reasons separate from Thompson’s. While Thompson’s prediction was mostly based on his own abilities, Sasser’s value/contributions will vary drastically on others. Depending on how the roster shakes out, there is a chance Sasser is buried in the depth chart for his rookie campaign, being stuck behind Cade Cunningham, Killian Hayes, and now Monte Morris. However, there is always the chance Killian is moved, and Monte and Marcus would then split time as backup point guard, even shifting to the two at times. It’s this unknown that makes it difficult to predict just how Sasser’s rookie season will play out.
Nevertheless, if Sasser is given proper minutes, I think his contribution will be more eye popping than Thompson, stat sheet-wise. Like Ausar, his defense will be his most immediate contribution, but unlike his fellow rookie, Sasser is an excellent three point shooter. Without needing to do much retooling, Marcus will be able to play off the other Detroit Pistons and knockdown jumpers from deep. His largest hurdle to overcome will likely just be a lack of available minutes, and the sheer size of NBA players compared to at the collegiate level. So, depending on minutes allotted for Sasser, I think his stat lines may be even more attractive than Ausar when all said and done this season.
While there are hundreds of variables that could, and will, affect both rookie’s first professional season, I think they will end with stat lines close to these. At the very least, I’m confident that we will see more impressive, explosive highlights from Ausar, but a more steady, exciting stat line from Marcus.
Either way, we will revisit these predictions next April to see just how accurate I was. Or wasn’t…
