Devils vs. Rangers prediction, odds: more value on the visitors?

New Jersey held on for a 2-1 win against New York in Game 3, setting up our Devils vs. Rangers prediction for Game 4 of this NHL first-round playoff series.

Road teams are 8-0 in the past eight NHL playoff games, with the Devils, Golden Knights, Maple Leafs, Avalanche, Hurricanes, Bruins, Stars and Oilers all winning away from home on Saturday and Sunday.

The Devils look like they’ve made the necessary adjustments, and I expect another road victory in Game 4.

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, current at the time of writing and subject to change.

Moneyline: Devils (+132) vs. Rangers (-160)

Spread: Devils +1.5 (-192) vs. Rangers -1.5 (+158)

Total: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (-102)

New Jersey Devils ML (+132) | Play to (+125)

The advanced metrics from Game 3 are shaky, and Money Puck’s advanced box score gave the Rangers a 59.9% chance of winning based on 1,000 simulations. The Rangers managed eight more shots and won the expected goals battle 3.35-2.82.

But we also watched a different New Jersey team on the ice in Game 3.

The Devils looked disconnected and confused in Games 1 and 2. They’re young, so you can forgive them for showing inexperience against a disciplined and tough Rangers team, but they were outclassed.

But the Devils have too much talent to roll over in this series, and head coach Lindy Ruff made the necessary adjustments.

The Devils slowed their pace in Game 3, looking like a more patient, composed hockey team with fewer breakdowns. The Rangers feed off mistakes, and the Devils stopped making them.

The Devils continued to commit penalties but also killed all five power plays. Meanwhile, the top line of Timo Meier, Jesper Bratt and Nico Hischier played brilliantly, putting together a 77% expected goal share in over 12 minutes of Game 3 ice time, per Money Puck.

The top line playing that well also allows Jack Hughes to play on the second line, improving the Devils’ depth.

Additionally, the Devils got a huge goaltending performance from backup Akira Schmid, who stopped 35 of 36 shots while recording 2.35 goals saved above expected. I’m hoping the Devils start him again because I think he’s the better goalie.

Schmid posted 8.2 goals saved above expected in 18 starts this year, averaging 2.13 goals against average. Meanwhile, Vitek Vanecek recorded 5.1 goals saved above expected in triple the amount of starts, checking in with 2.45 goals allowed average.

Schmid may have earned another start for Game 4, significantly raising the Devils’ ceiling by significantly reducing the goaltending disadvantage.

Ultimately, the Devils are too talented.

They are making the necessary adjustments to compete with the overachieving Rangers. And I don’t think the betting public has caught up to New Jersey’s adjustments, making the Devils undervalued in the market.

And the market is telling us to fade the Rangers. According to The Action Network, almost 90% of the betting tickets are coming in on the Rangers, but the line has moved the Devils’ way. We characterize that as reverse line movement, a profitable bet signal.

Finally, Evolving Hockey’s projections give the Devils a 56.1% chance of winning Game 4, granted Schmid is the starting goaltender. So, we’re getting great value on the Devils at a moderate plus-money price.

I’d bet the Devils at (+120) or better.