Diamondbacks-Brewers Wild Card Game 1 preview: Matchups, odds, x-factor, analysis
If either one of these teams gets into the World Series, a FOX executive will put his or her fist through the drywall. Everybody wants to watch Manchester City vs. Arsenal. Nobody wants to watch Northdunsbrookshire vs. Gobberston. Not when there’s ad revenue on the line.
That’s a shame, because these are two fun teams in their own way. The Diamondbacks have one of the most electric young talents in the game, Corbin Carroll, who does everything better than almost everyone else. They have two aces, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who have the potential to shut down any team on any given day.
The Brewers have a bullpen to envy and a rotation that can get them deep into the postseason, even with Brandon Woodruff battling a shoulder injury.
This is a good series. Every postseason series is a good series. You’re here because you know that.
NL Wild Card Game 1: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Start time: 7:08 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Pitching matchup:Brandon Pfaadt vs. Corbin Burnes
Game 1 pitching matchup
Brewers: RHP Corbin Burnes
2023 stats: 10-8, 3.39 ERA, 193 2/3 innings, 200 strikeouts, 1.07 WHIP
Not exactly as dominant as he used to be. Still plenty good. You don’t want to face him. Well, of course you don’t. You’re sitting behind a desk right now, avoiding actual work, and one Corbin Burnes fastball to the ribs would probably end your life. But professional baseball players don’t want to face Burnes either. He’s good.
But not as dominant as he used to be. Keep that in mind. His strikeout rate dropped for the third straight season, and his walk rate increased for the third straight season. There are a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction.
Still plenty good.
Diamondbacks: RHP Brandon Pfaadt
2023 stats: 3-9, 5.72 ERA, 96 innings, 94 strikeouts, 1.41 WHIP
Ah. Well. Those stats aren’t great. A less charitable individual might describe them as “bad,” and an absolute scoundrel might blurt, “How in the absolute [redacted several times over] is this guy starting Game 1 of a postseason series?.”
There’s context, of course. The Diamondbacks needed every last win to reach the postseason, which forced them to use Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly for the last weekend of the regular season. Now they’re here, and it’s the rook’s job to get them a leg up. Go get ‘em, rook. Sorry about the ERA.
But the most important context is that Pfaadt has been getting better. He’s not just a rando from a temp agency; he was a top prospect entering the season. And in his last four starts, he’s walked just two and struck out 26 over 21 innings. The stuff will play eventually. The Diamondbacks are hoping it’ll play right now.
Game 1 X-factor
The Brewers’ power
Pfaadt can strike people out. He limits the walks. But, good gravy, does he allow dingers. Over a full 162-game season, with 176 innings pitched, he would have projected out for 40 home runs allowed. That is simply too many.
The Brewers aren’t exactly stuffed with power bats — they don’t have a single batter with half as many home runs as Matt Olson, and they don’t have anyone who’s particularly close. But they’ll need to find some. Pfaadt might be a Cy Young winner one day, but he’s giving up homers now. Find some hitters who can take advantage of that.
Notable Quotable
That’s right. Bob Uecker is throwing out the first pitch for the Brewers. Even if he chucks one juuuuuuust a bit outside, that’s some good mojo for a franchise that’s looking for its first World Series win.
(Top photo of Burnes: John Fisher / Getty Images)
