Diamondbacks vs Marlins Predictions, Odds, Picks

One of the more underrated games on the MLB schedule Friday night is the Arizona Diamondbacks starting a three-game series against the Miami Marlins. 

The Diamondbacks are one of the surprise teams in baseball during the first two weeks of the season but are about to start a six-game road trip. On the other side, the Marlins are aiming for their third straight win on Friday and hope to build some momentum back at home.

Despite being overlooked heading into the season, the Diamondbacks are off to an 8-5 start and actually have a slim lead over the Dodgers atop the NL West. In fact, Arizona took three of four games against the Dodgers last weekend and then won a series over the Brewers.

Those series wins have given the Diamondbacks five wins in their last six games, creating a ton of positive momentum heading into their road trip despite being just 3-3 on the road thus far. The D’Backs will hope that Madison Bumgarner can get on track when he makes his third start of the season on Friday night.

As for the Marlins, they last played on Wednesday when they won a rubber match against the Phillies 3-2. After avoiding a sweep by beating the Mets on Sunday, Miami has now won three of its last four games. 

Unfortunately, that leaves the Marlins at just 6-7 right now with a dreadful -26 run differential. On the bright side, all of Miami’s games have come against the Mets, Phillies, or the AL-Central-leading Twins, so they’ve been able to hold their own against some good teams. It’ll be lefty Trevor Rogers searching for his first win of 2023 when the Marlins host Arizona on Friday.

With a little bit of momentum as they head home, the Marlins are favored to win Friday’s series opener. DraftKings has Miami’s moneyline at -145 while Arizona is listed at +125. There is also an over/under of nine runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Predictions

At the moment, the Diamondbacks don’t appear to be getting their money’s worth from Madison Bumgarner. The veteran lefty owns a 7.27 ERA and a 2.19 WHIP over his first two starts of 2023. In his defense, both of those starts came against a loaded Los Angeles lineup. But Bumgarner failed to finish five innings in both starts, walking 10 batters and allowing three home runs over 8.2 innings. Based on that, he’s a far way away from getting things on track.

The good news is that the Arizona lineup was able to salvage Bumgarner’s last start. Over their last six games, the Diamondbacks are averaging 6.7 runs per game while scoring at least four runs in six of their last nine games. Veteran Evan Longoria has led the way with a .333 average and a 1.105 OPS. But the true star of the Arizona lineup might be young outfielder Corbin Carroll, who has three home runs and five stolen bases, wreaking havoc with both his bat and his legs.

Miami Marlins Predictions

Much like Bumgarner, Miami lefty Trevor Rogers hasn't had the best start to his 2023 campaign. The southpaw was brilliant in 2021 but has allowed his struggles from 2022 to carry over this season. It’s worth noting that both of his starts this year have come against the Mets, so Rogers will be happy to be facing a different team. However, just like Bumgarner, he’s failed to get out of the fifth inning and has posted an ERA of 6.00. 

A lack of run support from the Miami lineup has also contributed to Rogers taking the loss in his first two starts of the season. 

The Marlins have the worst run-differential in the National League, largely because they’ve scored the fewest runs, averaging 3.2 runs per game. 

They’ve already been held to two runs or less six times in just 13 games. Oddly enough, last year’s American League batting champ Luis Arraez is collecting hits like they’re going out of style, batting .500 on the season. But other than a few home runs from Garrett Cooper and Jorge Soler, the Marlins aren’t giving Arraez much help. To make things worse, Miami’s entire roster is batting .186 in their careers against Bumgarner. 

Given Miami’s sluggish offense, the Diamondbacks are an excellent underdog pick to pull out a win on Friday.

Diamondbacks vs Marlins - Over/Under Analysis

Since both starting pitchers have an ERA of 6.00 or higher, taking the over seems like the logical choice.

However, Miami’s offensive woes have to be taken into account. An over/under of nine runs is awfully high for a team that’s been held to two runs or less in nearly half of their games. 

Keep in mind that the Marlins have hit the over just twice in their seven home games. That offensive ineptitude will override a pair of struggling pitchers who still have good stuff, making under nine runs the best option in this game.