Diamondbacks vs White Sox Odds, Picks, & Predictions

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27 September 2023

Diamondbacks vs White Sox Odds, Picks, & Predictions

The Diamondbacks put up 15 on the White Sox on Tuesday and should have no trouble this afternoon as Chicago rolls out a bullpen day. But with Arizona rookie Brandon Pfaadt struggling to keep runs off the board, our betting picks are looking at the total.

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have a slim lead over the Chicago Cubs for the second NL Wild Card, and they have a good opportunity to increase their lead when they face the other Chicago club this afternoon for Game 2 of their three-game interleague set.

The MLB odds for today’s matchup seem to point towards an Arizona victory when Arizona righty Brandon Pfaadt takes the mound against Chicago righthander Luis Patino.

Can Arizona get the best of Chicago once again? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the Diamondbacks and White Sox for Wednesday, September 27.

Diamondbacks vs White Sox odds

Diamondbacks vs White Sox predictions

Arizona Diamondbacks rookie Brandon Pfaadt has not lived up to his promise just yet in his burgeoning MLB career. He’s been particularly bad on the road, allowing 15 earned runs over his last five outings away from Arizona, and is coming off a 4 1/3-inning start where he allowed five earned with a pair of bombs in the D-backs' 7-1 loss to the Yankees.

The righty is allowing three home runs per nine innings away from Chase Field, and if the Chicago White Sox were ever to break out and score a few runs, it would be this afternoon against a struggling Pfaadt.

Luis Patino will likely open the game before turning it over to a gassed White Sox bullpen. Patino will be making his first start this season, and he’s surrendered four earned runs over 13 frames since being acquired by the Pale Hose. He won’t last more than three innings before turning it over to the bullpen with the third-highest ERA (5.09) in the AL, and the Diamondbacks offense will eat.

Arizona plated 15 runs last night and has scored 34 times over its previous five games. The D-backs boast the sixth-best offense in the NL against right-handed pitching with the fourth-most runs scored on the road against righties this season. The chief culprit has been rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll, who owns the ninth-best wRC+ (144) vs. righties in MLB to go along with 21 home runs and a .916 OPS in these matchups.

Finally, we have some suspect pitching against two pedestrian offenses, and I believe these offenses will rise up and score some runs today. The Snakes' bats have been booming, and the White Sox offense might wake up from its season-long slumber at home and come alive against a pitcher known for surrendering runs on the road.

My best bet: Over 9.5 (+100 at bet365)

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Diamondbacks vs White Sox same-game parlay

Over 9.5

Diamondbacks moneyline

With the White Sox rolling out a bullpen game after opener Patino and the Diamondbacks entrusting beleaguered rookie starter Pfaadt with the ball, the Over on the game total is the best angle to take into this matinee.

The Diamondbacks need this one. With the White Sox just 3-7 over their past 10 games at Guaranteed Rate Field and trotting out a faulty relief corps to support Patino, Arizona will come away with another victory. Let's not forget that Chicago is without its top offensive player, Luis Robert, who will miss the last few games with injury.

The D-backs are also 9-1 over their past 10 meetings with Chicago and I expect this trend to continue today.

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Diamondbacks vs White Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Diamondbacks are 40-39 on the road this season and have won four of their past 10 away games. The Snakes' pitching staff is 13th in the NL in xFIP and has allowed the third-most away runs in the National League.

Over the past 30 days, the Diamondbacks have an 86 wRC+ off righties with a 22.7% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate.

Chicago is 30-46 at Guaranteed Rate Field this season, and its pitching staff has yielded the third-most runs and the third-highest ERA among AL teams when playing at home.

The White Sox are 0-6 in their last six interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record and 1-8 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Trend to know

The Over is 5-0-1 in the White Sox’ last six vs. National League West Over is 6-1-1 in the White Sox’ last eight vs. a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. White Sox

Diamondbacks vs White Sox game info

Starting pitchers

Brandon Pfaadt (2-9, 6.08 ERA): Pfaadt has had a tough rookie season. He’s allowed 17 earned runs over his last 23 frames. He’s surrendered 15 earned runs over his past five away starts with a 5.68 ERA.

Luis Patino (0-0, 4.24 ERA): Patino is making his first start of the season and will likely serve as the opener. Over 17 innings, he's allowed 17 hits, eight earned runs with 15 punchouts, and has served up three bombs.