Dodgers vs Padres Prediction, Picks, Odds
The Padres are favored in their Saturday night showdown with the Dodgers, and Blake Snell is a big reason why. But as our MLB betting picks explain, Juan Soto's potential contributions to the cause should not be given short shrift.
The Los Angeles Dodgers offense exploded for five runs in the eighth inning and another three in the ninth on Friday night to fire the opening salvo in this four-game set with the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. However, they'll be significant road underdogs in the MLB odds for Saturday's rematch.
Can the Dodgers overcome what looks like a severe starting pitching disadvantage against Blake Snell in this spot? Find out in my MLB picks and predictions for Dodgers vs. Padres on Saturday, August 5.
Dodgers vs Padres odds
Dodgers vs Padres predictions
Despite dropping Friday's tilt to the rival Dodgers, the Padres are a solid 5-2 over their last seven games. A lot of that success is due to the hot-hitting Juan Soto.
Soto has torn the cover off the ball in that span, batting .423 with four homers and eight RBI. He owns an eye-popping 1.406 OPS in his last seven starts.
If you took Soto Over 1.5 total bases in each of those seven games, you would have cashed six times. I think he'll make it 7-for-8 and get at least two bags tonight, and at the time of writing,bet365has the best price on this prop at +140.
My confidence in the San Diego slugger not only stems from his recent hot streak, but it's also based on the uninspiring L.A. pitching staff.
Michael Grove is reportedly serving as the opener for the recently-acquired Ryan Yarbrough. Grove's second stint in the majors has left plenty to be desired, as he sports a 6.75 ERA over 62 2/3 innings with a 1.580 WHIP. The 26-year-old hurler is also in the 25th percentile in HardHit% and the ninth percentile in xSLG.
Yarbrough was recently dealt to the Dodgers by Kansas City for a pair of prospects. The lefty had a solid month of July (2.19 ERA over 24 2/3 innings), but the Padres hit southpaws as well as anybody (.786 OPS, fifth in the majors). They'll be hoping for a chance to tee off on him the second time around, where his OBA is .349. Yarbrough's OBA is even worse the third time through (.357), albeit over a limited 28 at-bat sample size.
The Dodgers' bullpen — once a source of strength — has become a major weakness in 2023. This unit is 18th in ERA (4.14) on the campaign.
From beginning to end, Soto will have plenty of chances to pad his stats on Saturday night.
My best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+140)
Dodgers vs Padres same-game parlay
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Will Smith Under 1.5 total bases
Under 9.5 alt. total
My three-leg same-game parlay begins with my best bet, which I described in detail above.
Not every sportsbook will let you take the under on MLB player props like total bases in an SGP, but BetRivers will. I feel good about fading the Dodgers' Will Smith in this spot.
The streaky Smith is batting .204 over the last 15 days, even after amassing a pair of hits on Friday night. Of those 49 at-bats, 15 ended in a strikeout. He's wiped out 12 times against Padres starter Blake Snell in only 26 prior at-bats while batting a modest .231.
Finally, BetRivers is also one of the few sportsbooks dealing the Under 9 at a fair price at the time of writing. Though they'll let you add the Under 9 to the SGP, I'd rather not risk the push, so I'll add the alternate Under 9.5 instead.
L.A.'s pitching could keep the Friars' offense from stringing together too many big innings. And I expect Snell to be at his best vs. a potentially depleted Dodgers order in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.
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Dodgers vs Padres moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Padres opened at a consensus line of -143 this morning, and have been bet to as high as -161 as of this afternoon. A lot of that movement is probably due to the Dodgers not naming a true starter to pitch tonight. But it's likely also because Snell is excelling on the bump in 2023.
Snell's renaissance year for an underachieving San Diego squad had him in the rumor mill, but he ultimately remained with the Friars. He currently paces all qualified starters with a 2.50 ERA and is sixth in total strikeouts (156).
The price on the Padres is a touch too short for my taste, but they would be the side I'd select if pressed to do so.
The total opened at 8.5 and is trending toward 9 at most books. Some have gone to the higher number already, while others are raising the vig to the -120 range on Over 8.5.
J.D. Martinez and Max Muncy are currently dealing with minor ailments. Even if they do play, they're a combined 4-for-36 (.111) off Snell with 12 punchouts. Add in Smith's struggles as well as Mookie Betts' poor past performances vs. Snell (.217 over 46 at-bats), and that's a recipe for the lefty to work six fairly clean frames before turning things over to the bullpen.
The Padres relief corps imploded on Friday, but this unit is still a solid 11th by ERA over the last two weeks even with that bad day factored in.
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Trend to know
The Padres are 7-2 to the Under in their last nine overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Padres
Dodgers vs Padres game info
Starting pitchers
Michael Grove (2-3, 6.75 ERA): Grove is reportedly serving as an opener for Yarbrough in this spot. Grove primarily offers a four-seam fastball (39%) and slider (34.7%) while mixing in a curveball (18.1%), cutter (7.8%), and changeup (0.4%). His fastball is getting knocked around to the tune of a .429 OBA. Grove's cutter — which he uses almost exclusively on lefties — is getting hit at a .273 clip with a .646 xSLG, almost as bad as the fastball xSLG (.648).
As for Yarbrough — who went 4-5 with a 4.24 ERA and a 1.196 WHIP over 51 innings in Kansas City this year — he is a junk-baller who mixes a sinker (28.6%), curveball (25.9%), cutter (23%), and changeup (22.5%) almost evenly. He's a master of inducing soft contact (92nd percentile in HardHit%) and doesn't walk anybody (98th percentile in BB%), but his xOBA (sixth percentile) and K% (second percentile) leave plenty to be desired.
Blake Snell (8-8, 2.50 ERA): Snell throws a four-seam fastball nearly half the time (50.1%), and keeps batters off balance with a curveball (17.8%), changeup (17.5%), and slider (14.7%). Walks have been a problem for the former Cy Young winner (fourth percentile), but it's hard to knock the southpaw's HardHit% (87th percentile), xSLG (79th percentile), and K% (91st percentile).
