Dolphins vs. Ravens Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 17: Will Baltimore Run Wild on Miami?

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29 December 2023

Dolphins vs. Ravens Prediction, Pick & Odds Week 17: Will Baltimore Run Wild on Miami?

Football fans are treated to a Week 17 meeting between AFC juggernauts on Sunday afternoon, and we're offering our top Dolphins vs. Ravens prediction based on the best NFL odds.

Two teams with Super Bowl aspirations will square off in Week 17 when the Baltimore Ravens (12-3) host the Miami Dolphins (11-4) in a game that could decide the AFC's No. 1 seed.

The Ravens are coming off a massive win over the Super Bowl odds favorite San Francisco 49ers on Christmas Day, which saw star QB Lamar Jackson vault to the top of the NFL MVP odds.

As for the Dolphins, they had a big win of their own in Week 16. Miami dealt a massive blow to the Dallas Cowboys' NFC East-title hopes with its 22-20 win at home, setting up Sunday's showdown for the top seed in the AFC.

Who will emerge victorious in this battle of AFC contenders?

Here is our best Dolphins vs. Ravens prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Dolphins vs. Ravens prediction

Justice Hill Under 8.5 rushing attempts (-148 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Just as many assumed, Hill earned an increased workload in Week 16 following rookie running back Keaton Mitchell's season-ending injury during the prior game.

Hill ran the ball 10 times (three fewer than his season high) for 26 yards against the 49ers. In comparison, fellow Ravens running back Gus Edwards carried the ball a somewhat surprising nine times. However, the data suggests that workload will flip in Week 17 against the Dolphins.

Across seven projection models, Edwards is projected to finish this contest with significantly more carries at 11.24 to Hill's 6.75. I also looked at Edwards' rushing attempts prop in my Dolphins vs. Ravens player props.

As for Hill, when we run his projection of 6.75 rushing attempts against the Under on FanDuel's line of 8.5 at -148 odds, we're getting better than 27% positive expected value.

All of our other best sports betting apps have Hill's total listed at 7.5. Among those best sports betting sites with a bigger variety of alternative lines, ESPN BET has Under 8.5 rushing attempts priced at -190.

For those who don't have access to FanDuel, BetMGM profiles as the next-best option with its -115 price on Under 7.5. This highlights the importance of odds shopping, as that prop provides bettors with less than 19% +EV compared to the 27% we're getting at FanDuel.

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Dolphins vs. Ravens best odds

As previously mentioned, among our best sportsbooks, only FanDuel offers a line of 8.5.

Both BetMGM and bet365 offer Under 7.5 at -115 odds, making them each a decent secondary option.

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It may seem daunting at first, but consider it an investment. Even if you're winning by betting at only a single sportsbook, you're likely robbing yourself of money by regularly getting inferior odds.

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Dolphins vs. Ravens odds

The more aggressive betting splits for this game have come on the total rather than the spread, with the latter experiencing a relatively even split. Roughly 55% of the action on the spread has been on the Ravens, who serve as -3.5 favorites.

Around 65% of the action on the total has been on the Over, which helps explain why it's jumped half a point from 46.5 to 47 at our best live betting sites.