Donal Lenihan on Tour: A seminal moment in Irish rugby history awaits

There’s something very strange afoot here in Auckland at present with a picture being painted, both in media circles and amongst the general public, that their beloved All Blacks are vulnerable and in a state of flux.

There’s a level of respect for the Irish team and nervousness attaching to Saturday's much-anticipated first test that I’ve never witnessed before in New Zealand, regardless of the opposition. In the not too distant past when an Irish side rocked into town they barely merited a second glance.

The fact that Eden Park has been sold out for weeks for tomorrow’s opening test tells its own story. Part of this can be attributed to the fact the New Zealand public have been starved of top class international rugby due to the pandemic for over two years. It’s also due to a recognition that this Irish squad has been delivering a really attractive brand of winning rugby against top class opposition for some time now.

Add to the mix, a lack of confidence in the New Zealand coaching set-up, coupled with a spate of Covid-enforced withdrawals that saw two certain starters - centre David Havili and outstanding full back/winger Will Jordan - along with Havili’s Crusaders midfield partner Jack Goodhue, all testing positive during the week, and the mood is unusually gloomy.

I don’t buy it for a second. The depth chart of talent in this country is breathtaking even if there’s a growing concern about the impact professionalism has had on the amateur club game and the reduction in playing numbers, along with the ever-increasing number of quality Kiwis now playing professionally overseas.

The cupboard isn’t exactly bare however. For proof, look no further than the performances of some relatively unknown Māori All Blacks in Hamilton on Wednesday night. The skill levels from the back three alone in Zarn Sullivan, Shaun Stevenson and Connor Garden-Bachop were incredible. Offered a modicum of time and space to operate in, they created havoc.

While accepting its been a challenging week, preparation wise, for New Zealand with four of their coaches - including Ian Foster - absent due to positive Covid tests, it hasn’t exactly been plain sailing for Ireland either.

The manner of the defeat to the Maoris has robbed the tour party of the opportunity to generate momentum but shouldn’t have any direct impact on Saturday’s test. Of more concern is a growing injury list.

Already without first choice hooker Ronan Kelleher, the injury picked up in training this week by Rob Herring prevents him from acting as back up to Dan Sheehan. With Tadhg Berne having played no rugby since the Six Nations and Ryan Baird also just back from injury, the last thing Farrell needed was losing double British and Irish Lion, Iain Henderson.

The Ulster captain was in terrific form recently for his province and was a nailed-on starter for this test. With the certainty that the injury toll will rise over the course of this demanding five game tour, Ireland needed all their top guns available in the front five.

Then again, this is exactly what happens at World Cups and the team that best absorbs those hits is usually the one that prevails in the end. This tour is a mission in discovering what the real Irish depth chart looks like and presents the opportunity for players to stand up and be counted over the next few weeks.

Coaching equilibrium

Much has been made of the considerable Covid disruption to the New Zealand coaching ticket with good reason. With Foster and three of his key assistants in John Plumtree, Greg Feek and Scott McLeod, all forced out of camp during the week, New Zealand preparations have been greatly compromised.

History has shown that the All Blacks are at their most vulnerable in the opening game of their season even if this test is at Eden Park where they haven’t lost since 1994. What New Zealand still have is a core of top quality operators who have experienced most things in the game.

All week the rugby channels have been replaying past tests hosted by them against Ireland, including the 60-0 thrashing in Hamilton in 2012. It was instructive to be reminded that Sam Whitelock, Brodie Retallick, Aaron Smith, Beauden Barrett and current captain Sam Cane were all involved in that series.

Interestingly current tourists Cian Healy, Peter O'Mahony, Conor Murray, Johnny Sexton and Keith Earls all started that game a decade ago. In the absence of so many coaches, that All Black quintet have been specifically tasked with taking on even more responsibilities in the build up to Saturday’s opening test.

The fact that Joe Schmidt has been parachuted into camp to oversee operations will help those senior players in a number of ways. Having Joe’s knowledge and insight on the Irish players can only be a positive from a New Zealand perspective and makes up in some way for the missing management personnel. Joe won’t want to lose on his maiden voyage in an All Black tracksuit.

The fact that the coaching equilibrium has shifted somewhat from the coaches to the players may even serve New Zealand better this week with that senior group knowing they all have to deliver even more. Sometimes teams can be over-coached and forget to play. For evidence of that look again that stunning Maori performance in Hamilton on the back, as I was informed by one of their coaches at breakfast on Thursday, of just two training sessions.

Cometh the hour for James Ryan

THE defeats to Ireland and France last November, along with a first ever loss to Argentina in 2020 and their hammering by England at the World Cup, has generated a feeling at home that this team has lost its ruthless streak, their set piece is vulnerable and their breakdown work is lacking physicality.

I fear that’s about to change. New Zealand will target Ireland’s set piece in an effort to stop Farrell’s men generating the type of forward momentum on the gain line that was central to the win in Dublin seven months ago.

As a result Scott Barrett, who is in outstanding form for the Crusaders, has been selected out of position in the No 6 jersey to create a further line out option and greater ball carrying ballast. The last time New Zealand made that switch, against England in that World Cup semi-final, it backfired spectacularly, with Barrett withdrawn at half time.

Ireland’s front five have to step up to the mark in this one to have any chance of winning. James Ryan, who exploded onto the international stage so spectacularly in 2018, has struggled to make the same impact in recent times, due primarily to injury.

With Tadhg Beirne short of game time and Henderson out of commission, the time has come for Ryan to lead the charge against the massively experienced locking partnership of Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retallick.

With Barrett’s inclusion, New Zealand have three towering operators out of touch and will attempt to cut off Ireland’s supply line at source. Peter O'Mahony’s lineout smarts will be crucial in order to generate badly needed possession to launch Ireland’s attacking plays.

New Zealand have also identified the breakdown as the key to preventing Ireland play the game on their terms. There is a recognition that Ireland outplayed them physically in this key aspect last November and they are adamant it won’t happen again.

A big worry I have entering this contest is the lack of real forward impact off the bench due to the accumulation of all those injuries up front. It will prove a minor miracle if Cian Healy recovers in time to take his place on the bench after the ankle injury he picked up on Wednesday night. If he is forced to cry off, Ireland’s front row cover will be seriously compromised.

Ireland finally prevailed at the 29th attempt when beating New Zealand in Chicago in 2016. That triumph was embellished by those wins at the Aviva Stadium in 2018 and 2020. This group of Irish players have the opportunity to reach the final frontier with a win in Auckland tomorrow. With the odds mounting against them, it would represent a seminal moment in Irish rugby history.