Don’t play the fool with a Derby Day Pick 6

The Citizen

31 March 2023

Don’t play the fool with a Derby Day Pick 6

You’ve got to be careful with April Fool pranks in South Africa, what with cabinet ministers around.

Who can forget Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe making an ass of himself and embarrassing all of us by announcing the discovery of the rare mineral hazenile, which would solve our battery problems? He made the false news announcement in Australia after cutting and pasting it from a publication that stated clearly in red letters it had all been an April Fools’ Day joke and hazenile, sadly, did not exist.

Indeed, ANC politicians are so dimwitted it’s conceivable rhinos could do a better job. That’s what people in Sao Paulo, Brazil, decided when they elected a rhino called Cacareco (Portuguese for Rubbish) to a seat on the city council by 100,000 votes after students, tired of political mismanagement, put up the ungulate as a candidate in a 1956 April Fool stunt.

The WSB Championships

This year, April Fools’ Day coincides with the final instalment of The WSB Championships series at Turffontein – a high-quality race meeting incorporating the Grade 1 SA Derby and the Grade 1 HF Oppenheimer Horse Chestnut Stakes.

For punters, however, the main allure is a predicted R6-million Pick 6 pool.

Whenever an exotic-bet fortune is dangled before us, we immediately search for a banker to allow us to “go wide” in other legs of the bet – in unquenchable hope of a big scoop from the big pot.

Many pundits are plumping for a three-year-old filly called Bless My Stars, who runs for trainer Sean Tarry in the Grade 2 Bridget Oppenheimer SA Oaks, Race 8 on the card.

It would be rude to say this is an April Fool joke, but we must urge caution. The Oaks is a race full of young horses maturing at different rates, so there is a high degree of unpredictability about the thing – compounded by the fact that only a few of the 11 runners have been tried over a trip like 2450m.

Lucky Houdalakis’ runners

Bless My Stars did win the 1800m SA Fillies Classic and the step up in this, the final leg of the Triple Tiara, looks within her scope in terms of her form and pedigree. But there is hunch involved.

Fillies Guineas winner Lady Of Power looked a bit stretched by the Classic 1800m, but did race prominently that day and could benefit from being tucked in over the marathon. We should also remember she changed yards between those runs and will be more settled now.

Brave souls, if not fools, will leave out trainer Lucky Houdalakis’s trio of runners: None Other, Raratonga Rose and Namaqua Blossom. All are relatively seasoned for their age and know about endurance around the Turffontein circuit.

Punters putting at least these five into their Pick 6 permutations will obviously be wanting to economise somewhere.

Some of the reasoning for the Oaks also applies to the WSB SA Derby (Race 7), though a handful of runners do appear to be a cut above the others. Billy Bowlegs, Eye Of The Prophet and Good Council are the ones that must be included.

Horse Chestnut Stakes

The Horse Chestnut Stakes (Race 6) is wildly competitive and cries out for the field to be taken.
Where to “go narrow” then?

The collection of hardened stayers in the Caradoc Gold Cup (Race 9) could throw up any result – so not there.

Gobsmacked in the Man O’War Sprint (Race 5) might be considered as a banker, with her four wins and a second from five starts, but she is taking on males for the first time, giving us pause. At least Quantum Theory should be added to avoid looking a fool.

So to be a boring old sensible non-fool, just take a smaller percentage in your Pick 6.