Dribble Handoff: Buying or selling Kentucky's Elite Eight chances, Michigan State as an NCAA Tournament team
It's the final week of the year, and college basketball is about to transition from nonconference to conference mode. While the season's first couple months have taught us some lessons about the contenders and pretenders in the sport, the jury still out on several programs and coaches.
How about first-year Ole Miss coach Chris Beard? The Rebels are off to a perfect 12-0 start after an ugly ending to his Texas tenure just a year ago. Then, there's Kenny Payne at Louisville, who appears to be safe for the moment despite a 5-7 start. Will he survive until the season ends?
What should we make of freshman-laden Kentucky and the flashes of brilliance we've seen from the young Wildcats? Is UK officially back and destined for postseason glory? Then, there's conference realignment and the uncertainties over how the great starts from BYU and Houston will translate once the Big 12 grind starts.
With the calendar about to flip, there are questions abound. For this week's edition of the Dribble Handoff, our writers are weighing in on many of these topics with a game of buy/sell.
Kentucky will make the Elite Eight
Buying:Kyle Boone, Cameron Salerno
Selling:Gary Parrish, Matt Norlander, David Cobb
If I had to make a list of eight teams that could win the 2024 NCAA Tournament, Kentucky would be on it based on the idea that the Wildcats have more NBA talent than anybody. They also have enough experience -- in fifth-year players Antonio Reeves and Tre Mitchell -- to avoid totally relying on freshmen. I like this team. I wrote glowingly about them from the CBS Sports Classic a couple of weekends ago. I could genuinely see UK winning it all and getting John Calipari a second national championship.
But the NCAA Tournament is such a crap shoot.
And given that Kentucky doesn't currently project as a top-two seed -- the Wildcats are outside of the top 15 in every reputable computer and just 3-1 in the first two quadrants with a Q3 loss to UNC Wilmington -- the wise move is to simply bet against UK making the Elite Eight. Could that prove to be wrong? Of course. Again, the bracket is a crap shoot. But the Wildcats are +600 to make the Final Four and would also be plus-money, at this point, to advance to the Elite Eight. So the only smart answer to this question is a response that assumes Kentucky will not make a regional final, one way or another. -- Parrish
BYU will finish .500 or better in Big 12 play
Buying:Parrish, Norlander, Boone
Selling:Cobb, Salerno
This is a great question. I am buying it. While the Big 12 still rates as the toughest league in college hoops, BYU's first two months have been convincing. An 11-1 record with the sole loss by four points against heated rival Utah (which should also be good enough to make the NCAAs this season). The schedule hasn't been a bear (only three top-100 opponents) but the Cougars rank top-10 in every mainstream predictive metric. If anything, it would be a surprise if BYU DIDN'T go 9-9 or better in the Big 12. To me, the 50/50 proposition feels closer to over/under 11.5 league wins. That said, I am in on BYU winning double-digit Big 12 games and positioning itself for a seed in the 3/4 range on Selection Sunday. Mark Pope's team is sturdy on both ends of the floor, has good size and most of them have been playing together for two-plus years. Cougars are a Sweet 16-good. -- Norlander
Michigan State is an NCAA Tournament team
Buying:Parrish, Norlander, Cobb, Salerno
Selling:Boone
There are few coaches in the sport you can count on more come tournament time than Tom Izzo. Michigan State's streak of 25 consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances ranks third all-time behind Kansas (33, 1990-present) and North Carolina (27, 1975-2021). That streak is in danger because of the slow start to the season, but I'm still buying stock for MSU to make the tournament with plenty of time to rack up Quad 1 wins during Big Ten play. Michigan State already showed some fight in a blowout win over Baylor earlier this month and the Spartans most certainly have the personnel to beat any team on a given night. There's been a handful of times during the last decade that MSU just hasn't looked good during the regular season and somehow ended up making it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. I'm riding with Izzo to make the tournament until the wheels fall off. He's just simply one of a handful of coaches in the sport you don't bet against. -- Salerno
Kenny Payne finishes regular season as Louisville's coach
Buying:Boone
Selling:Parrish, Norlander, Cobb, Salerno
As bad as the Kenny Payne era has been at Louisville -- and trust me, folks, it has been Bad (with a capital B) -- at this point it seems slightly more likely than not that the Cardinals ride this thing out through the season. The reasons are three-fold. Number one, Louisville's last coach, Chris Mack, was fired mid-season. That's not a trend you want to continue if you are trying to lure in elite coaches. New AD Josh Heird, who took the gig in the summer of 2022, surely knows as much. Number two: if you haven't fired Payne by now, what will change in the next few months? This is a team that lost to a Division II program a few months back and since then has endured numerous embarrassments on and off the court. If what we've seen thus far doesn't warrant a midseason ouster, then it's hard to imagine something changes. And finally, Heird showing patience with Payne -- or at least projecting a public perception of patience -- may be more valuable than some realize. Heird already expressed support for Payne heading into the new year, and while he carefully chose his words there, it makes sense to slow-play a decision. Everyone expects the job to be open, so making that decision is merely a formality anyway. Yes, making it official would appease fans, boosters and possible prospective players, but ultimately it matters very little to the future candidates whose view of the position matters most. -- Boone
Ole Miss makes the NCAA Tournament
Buying:Parrish, Norlander, Cobb, Salerno
Selling:Boone
If the 12-0 record and name of the coach (Chris Beard) is all you're looking at, then you might think this is a ridiculous topic to even ponder. But despite its unbeaten start in Beard's first season, Ole Miss faces an uphill climb to reach the NCAA Tournament. Eight of its 12 victories to date are of the Quad 4 variety, and none are Quad 1 wins, which has left Beard's club at No. 56 in the NET as of Tuesday. But despite the lousy competition, there are reasons to buy stock in Ole Miss as conference play approaches.
With 7-foot-5 center Jamarion Sharp blocking 2.8 shots per game and 6-foot-10 Moussa Cisse swatting 1.2 shots per game off the bench in just 14 minutes per contest, the Rebels are one of the nation's top shot-blocking squads. They are also making 40.7% of their 3-pointers, which is eighth nationally. The Rebels also added second-time transfer Brandon Murray to the mix recently after he averaged double figures at LSU and Georgetown each of the past two seasons. Murray is a wing with size and SEC experience.
Beard is known for fielding competitive teams early in his tenure at new schools, and he's clearly doing it again at Ole Miss. The SEC is a bit watered down at the top, and there is now some basketball fever in Oxford, Mississippi. Look for the Rebels to take down a few of the league's more-established programs at home throughout the league slate and build just enough of a resume to sneak into the Big Dance. -- Cobb
