Dubbo races Sunday: Tips, best bets, preview and inside mail

Trainer Dean Mirfin has one-time Country Championships contender Island Press in mint condition ahead of Sunday’s attempted defence of his 2022 Dubbo Gold Cup Prelude (1418m).

The Tony Mullo-bred son of the Tony Muollo-owned Press Statement registered his sixth career win when a brave all-the-way win at Wellington on the last day of the 2022/23 season.

“He was vulnerable late at the end of a 1400m first-up off the back of just one soft trial,’’ Mirfin said.

“He seems to have trained on very well since Wellington. He has to obviously run well on Sunday but all going well, he runs in the Prelude and then in the Dubbo Gold Cup.

“Island Press won this race last year and it’s a target race for him so we will see how we go.’’

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Mirfin is never short of a genuine Country Championships horse.

It could be that by the time the Mudgee Qualifier rolls around, that the lightly-raced Dubbo-bound Scopics emerges as his top seed.

A son of Divine Prophet, Scopics has won his first two starts in December 2022 and only had one more prior to his honourable fourth in the this year’s Mudgee Country Championships Qualifying Heat.

“He is a progressive horse,’’ Mirfin said.

“I think he is probably going to enjoy having a break throughout the spring and he will come back in the warmer weather and mature a bit more and I think we will have a nice horse next year with him.

“We would like to think he would around in February next year for the Country Championship and have another go as a four-year-old.’’

Scopics’s immediate mission is Sunday’s Ellsberg At Murralla Stud Benchmark 58 Handicap (1418m).

“He has got to carry a relatively big weight but he does look very well placed in the race.

“The (wide) draw shouldn’t affect him too badly given his racing pattern should be able to overcome that.

“If he turns up and runs as good as he did last start or indeed the start before he would be hard to beat.’’

Seven-year-old Star Witness daughter Kimmylee lines up for her 47th start this weekend at Dubbo.

Her 46th outing was further afield, Canterbury to be precise, where she was beaten a diminishing three lengths despite being the $91 outsider.

“She ran great,’’ Mirfin said.

“I expected it too.

“She’s that type of mare that every time she goes to the races, she gives us 100 per cent and you just can’t ask more from a horse than that.

“She is racing as good as she ever has. The older she’s got the rougher she’s got.’’

Stablemate Bulla Vinaka, meanwhile, is just beginning his career and given the strength of his Dubbo debut, he will be winning his share of races.

The grandson of VRC Oaks winner made up a tremendous amount of ground over 1218m that afternoon with Nick Heywood riding.

“Nick likes him and wanted to ride him again and thought he needed 1400m and he has got that,’’ Mirfin said.

SHAYNE O’CASS’ TOP SELECTIONS

BEST BET

Race 3 No.1: TWO YA GOT

Won 7 of 14 starts and that’s not easy to do these days. Goes like a bomb fresh too.

NEXT BEST

Race 7 No.2: BULLA VINAKA

Was closing fast on debut here over 1218m; the extra 200m might be the difference this time.

VALUE BET

Race 1 No.1: SCOPICS

Ran fourth in the Country Championships Heat this year. Big run at Kembla last start.

QUADDIE

Race 5: 2,4

Race 6: 2,10

Race 7: 2

Race 8: 1,2,3,4

JOCKEY TO FOLLOW

Mogo Magic’s jockey Nick Heywood has ridden six winners in the first (almost) two weeks of the 2023/24 season.

INSIDE MAIL

RACE 1

Scopics is a genuine 2024 Country Championships contender. He is in the right stable for starters. On top of that, the son of Divine Prophet finished fourth in the 2023 Heat at Mudgee at just his fourth start. Nothing ran better than this horse at Kembla on August 5. Just has to beat the weight and the draw on Sunday. Keep On Going is a local who has raced at home seven times for two wins, two seconds (one to Aimpoint) and two thirds. Keikoko hasn’t run a bad race for Luke Pepper but a lot of good ones!

Bet: Scopics to win

RACE 2

Oneofthesenights gives the impression that she will have taken benefit from her pretty honourable debut fourth at Tamworth just from a race-sense angle. The apprentice did zero wrong on her but a senior goes on (and a very good one too). All Too Sneaky creates a whole lot of interest here at the start of the second campaign. She is a million times better than the Silver Apple run at Orange – it was Heavy 9 that afternoon. Trialled very well indeed. Hammon Summer has claims.

Bet: Oneothesenights to win, quinella 10,8

RACE 3

Two Ya Got has won seven of his 14 starts which is good in any era but very, very hard to do these days with such competitive racing and getting points added to your benchmark every time. He has a great first-up record and to top it all off, he is two from two at Dubbo. Beauchamp is another one who likes it here at Dubbo. He ought to, it is his home track. One thing about him is that he has been running in some really strong races. Billabong Isle lives at Orange but saves her best for Dubbo.

Bet: Two Ya Got to win, exacta 1 to beat 3

RACE 4

Obey is a Clint Lundholm-trained mare by Nicconi who has won two out of five this time in. You could make a case to argue that she hasn’t run an outright bad race in all the time that Lundholm has had her. She has the superior benchmark rating but cops the 61kg as a result. Divine Sinner has raced six times for a win and three placings. It’s not his fault of course but he has been a bit costly for win backers. Hardly The End was incredibly determined winning first-up.

Bet: Obey to win

RACE 5

Feirme Prince was backed as if unbeatable here on July 28 and “they” got it right as “they” often do. Just for the record, the Toby Pracey-trained gelding won by four lengths. This weekend’s race looks a whole lot stronger (naturally) but he’s run well in similar if not better standard before. Kimmylee was $91 when she went to Canterbury on July 26. Granted, she ran eighth of 12 but she was only beaten a diminishing three lengths. Won here at Dubbo three starts ago. Sting Jet was brave under his big weight, winning in fast time last start.

Bet: Feirme Prince to won, Kimmylee each-way

RACE 6

Island Press deserves a lot of praise for his win at Wellington despite the fact he only won by an inch or two. Got to remember that he was going 1400m first-up off one pretty soft trial. He’s a good horse – and very reliable. One more thing to say, he won this race last year. Local Smooth Esprit was always going to be too good for them at Dubbo on June 26 and was, thanks in part to a lovely ride. He is a Highway winner too. Red Beryl was a fraction unlucky at Moree. He is competitive in anything and everything. Ditto for “Basil”.

Bet: Island Press to win, quinella 2,10

RACE 7

Bulla Vinaka was $19 into $14 when he made his debut here at Dubbo on July 28. It was a massive run. He was going like a dromedary (trainer Dean Mirfin’s words) before the corner but balanced up and really charged to the line. The extra 200m coupled with the race experience point to this grandson of VRC Oaks winner, Bulla Borghese. Hammon Sky has placed at four of his five starts, most of them in pretty respectable company. Kirameki is finding it hard to win but has nine placings in 22 starts.

Bet: Bulla Vinaka to win

RACE 8

Epic Poem has raced 13 times in total. His last four have been for local (prolific) trainer Michael Mulholland and are ‘5121’. You would imagine that barrier three is the dream scenario for the son of Star Turn. It is certainly a better alley than what most of his dangers drew. namely Raiding who has barrier 12. That said, Raining is in-form and seems somewhat versatile. Bill Peyto has finished on the podium at 13 of his 36 starts. He is getting close again.