Ducks’ big question: Can Trevor Zegras turn into a franchise player?

Stanley Cups are won by franchise players. Franchise players are found at the top of the draft. The top of the draft is reserved for the league’s worst teams. The Ducks are one of the league’s worst teams and that’s been their story over the past five seasons: lose a lot, draft high picks, find franchise players.

Sometimes it’s obvious whether a player is franchise-worthy right from the jump, but more often than not it takes time to figure out whether a young player can reach that level. That’s the question facing every single member of Anaheim’s young core, none more so than Trevor Zegras.

He kicked off Anaheim’s rebuild effort as the ninth selection in 2019 in what is looking like a fairly savvy choice four years later. Only Jack Hughes has more points than Zegras from his draft class and he’s fourth in total value behind Hughes, Matt Boldy and Moritz Seider.

Zegras is extremely flashy; he’s a crafty player with the puck who can already do things very few in this league can match. His skill level is through the roof, he’s exceptionally creative and he of course earns extra style points for his eagerness to do the Michigan. His career started off extremely promising with 13 points in 24 games in his first taste of NHL action and he took that a step further in his rookie season with 61 points in 75 games. That’s an impressive figure made even more exciting by the Ducks earning 50 percent of the goals and expected goals with Zegras on the ice. On a bad team, that’s very good.

While many were quick to discredit Zegras’ flash, his game looked like it had real substance. He was great at creating chances as well as transitioning the puck through each zone. For a rookie, his defensive results weren’t bad either. Everything was progressing well for Zegras to position himself as a future franchise-tier player and his promising rookie season was a big reason many expected Anaheim to take a leap forward last season.

That obviously didn’t come to pass and that’s partly because of Zegras. His upcoming season is about to speak volumes about what kind of player he can be — and hopefully it’s nothing close to what he was in his sophomore season.

The fear that Zegras was all style, no substance was fully realized last year in a season that was completely empty-calorie. On the surface, things looked fine: same goal pace, same point pace, same shot rate, same offensive impact. If all that mattered was offense, Zegras looked fine — maybe disappointing without any progress, but fine given how poor the context of his surroundings was.

Under the surface though, Zegras’ play with the puck slipped, according to data tracked by Corey Sznajder. He contributed to fewer scoring chances (9.6 to 7.2 chances per 60), he struggled to generate off the forecheck (14.1 to 10.3 shots per 60), he entered the zone with control less frequently (13.7 to 12.1 entries per 60), and he earned fewer chances off those entries (4.3 to 3.3 chances per 60). Sure, he got his points, but what made Zegras look special in his first season was all he could do with the puck. He was much less of a factor in that regard last season.

What’s significantly more worrying though was his play without it. It’s why Zegras’ Net Rating fell from plus-4.1 in his rookie season to minus-3.7 last year — despite a nearly identical Offensive Rating.

Zegras was low-key solid at retrieving pucks and exiting his own zone as a rookie, but all of that fell apart last season. He was less active on exits, less successful, less careful and didn’t retrieve as many pucks, either. That might be what led to an increase in chances and goals against. The Ducks gave up one extra expected and actual goal per 60 with Zegras on the ice last year compared to the year prior. He was in the league’s bottom 10 for both. On a historically inept defensive squad, Zegras’ relative impact on chances and goals against got worse.

Look through the logs of the league’s franchise players and there aren’t many whose two-way game ever looked as bad as Zegras’ did last season, even at a young age.

That doesn’t mean Zegras can’t get there, just that the odds have diminished. Year 3 will be extremely telling on that front and there is some hope that he can turn things around. A better team around him helps, as does a new coach who can hopefully instil a tighter defensive system.

The fact that he’s still just 22 is the biggest reason to think Zegras can still be a franchise player. He’s at an age where players make big leaps and take big steps. For him, that means elevating his defensive game while taking his offense to the next level. It’s not out of the cards for him, the talent is there. But after last season we’re going to have to see it to believe it.