Duke vs. Clemson odds, prediction, betting trends for Week 1 matchup
The No. 9 Clemson Tigers (-13) head to Durham, NC, to face the upstart Duke Blue Devils in the final game of the Week 1 slate on Labor Day (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN). Following consecutive three-loss campaigns, Dabo Swinney's crew is eager to return to the College Football Playoff, entering the season as the odds-on favorites to win the ACC with a title game (+140) and pegged with a regular season win total of 10 games.
Getting past their Week 1 opponent won't come easy, though. Duke took a massive step forward in head coach Mike Elko's first season, significantly exceeding preseason expectations en route to a 9-4 finish that culminated in a Military Bowl victory over UCF. The Blue Devils won nine games for the first time since 2014, and with 18 starters returning, most notably QB Riley Leonard, the Blue Devils appear to be dark horse contenders in the ACC this season.
Can Elko's crew pull off a monumental upset of the ACC favorites at home on Labor Day? Here's everything to know about betting on the Week 1 matchup between the Tigers and Blue Devils:
Clemson vs. Duke odds
- Spread: Clemson -13 (-110); Duke +13 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 55.5 (-110); UNDER 55.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Clemson -450; Duke +333
Clemson opened as 11.5-point favorites and has since been bet up to 13-point chalk. The last time these two squads faced off in November 2018, Clemson closed as 30-point home favorites. While the Tigers haven't been as dominant as we've been accustomed to in the past, the fact Duke's only a 13-point home favorite points to the success Elko's had in his short time in Durham. We've also seen plenty of UNDER money flood the market, with the total dropping from 58 at opening to 55.5.
Three trends to know
— Although Clemson ended the 2022 season with a 7-7 ATS record, the Tigers did cover 77.8 percent of their ACC games, going 7-2 ATS.
— Per BetQL, Elko owns a perfect 6-0 ATS record in home games as the head coach of Duke.
— Additionally, Duke thrived in the underdog role last season, covering five of six games in which they closed as 'dogs.
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Three things to watch
Game one of the Garrett Riley era
After Clemson's offense finished the 2022 season ranking 52nd in EPA/play on offense per CFB Graphs (0.053), it was clear the Tigers needed to do something differently. Outside of making a late-season QB change and benching DJ Uiagalelei for Cade Klubnik, the school hired ex-TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, brother of USC head coach Lincoln Riley, to run the offense. Riley's version of the Air Raid should result in a much more potent offensive attack for Clemson, helping their chances of returning to the CFP for the first time in three seasons.
Can Duke match scores?
Although Duke's offense ended '22 posting the 19th-highest EPA/play (0.155), can they consistently move the ball against arguably the best defense in the ACC? Clemson's defense loses several key pieces in Bryan Bresee, Myles Murphy, KJ Henry, and Trenton Simpson to the NFL, but Wes Goodwin's crew still projects to be one of the top stop units in the country, boasting yet another uber-talented front seven. Clemson was a top-10 defense relative to its EPA/play allowed last season (-0.141), so it should be a tall task for Duke to keep pace on the scoreboard.
Duke's WRs vs. Clemson's DBs
That said, Clemson's defense was rather susceptible through the air, allowing 232 pass yards per game -- its highest mark over the past seven seasons. Don't expect Duke to have much success on the ground against Clemson's stout defensive line, but if Duke's WR corps can win their battles on the outside and create chunk plays, this game could be closer than the current spread indicates. A lot of pressure is seemingly on Duke's top two receivers, Jalon Calhoun (62 receptions, 873 yards in '22) and Jordan Moore (60 receptions, 656 yards) to make plays downfield.
Stat that matters
+16. That was Duke's turnover differential in 2022, the second-highest mark among FBS programs. While Elko's crew deserves a hat tip for consistently winning the turnover battle against their opponents, turnover margin is one of the flukiest stats that rarely carry over year-to-year. If Elko's defense continues to create havoc and ends the night with a +2 or +3 turnover margin, the Blue Devils have a real shot to not stay within the number, but potentially win outright.
Duke vs. Clemson prediction
It's never easy laying double digits on the road, especially in a Week 1 game, but Clemson's revamped offense led by Klubnik should generate its fair share of red-zone trips. Couple that with Clemson winning the battle in the trenches and limiting explosive plays on the outside, the ACC favorites get the job done with a two-possession road win in its opener.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Duke 20. Clemson (-13) covers the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (55.5).
