Early SEC Football Predictions for 2023
The SEC won't have much intrigue at the top with Georgia expected to be the favorite to win the conference again in 2023, but the league has plenty of interesting debates outside of Athens. LSU unseated Alabama top the West Division last year and is positioned to make a run at the CFB Playoff in coach Brian Kelly's second season. The Crimson Tide have to replace quarterback Bryce Young and linebacker Will Anderson Jr., but talent isn't an issue in Tuscaloosa. Will Alabama return to the top of the West in '23 or will Kelly's team make it two in a row? The rest of the West is up for grabs, as Arkansas, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and even an improved Texas A&M or Auburn could make a case at No. 3. Tennessee is Georgia's biggest challenger in the East, but Kentucky and South Carolina should push to be Top 25 teams next fall. Florida is in rebuild mode in coach Billy Napier's second year, while Missouri and Vanderbilt should be in the mix to get to six wins and a bowl.
It’s never too early to think about predictions or rankings for the 2023 college football season. With that in mind, Athlon provides its very early power rankings for the SEC for 2023:
East Division
1. Georgia
Going back-to-back was difficult. Winning three national titles in a row in this era of college football? Extremely challenging. But if any team in the nation is suited to do so, it's the Bulldogs. Coach Kirby Smart's program is losing another chunk of talent to the NFL, including lineman Jalen Carter, cornerback Kelee Ringo, quarterback Stetson Bennett, running back Kenny McIntosh and linemen Broderick Jones and Warren McClendon. But the next wave of stars is ready to emerge, including safety Malaki Starks, linebackers Smael Mondon and Jamon Dumas-Johnson, and Mykel Williams and Bear Alexander up front. Carson Beck is the front-runner to start at quarterback, but he will be pushed by Brock Vandagriff and Gunner Stockton. Tight end Brock Bowers returns, and the receiving corps will be deeper with a healthy AD Mitchell and the addition of Dominic Lovett and Rara Thomas transfers.
2. Tennessee
Coach Josh Heupel has to reload a high-powered offense, but even with quarterback Hendon Hooker and receivers Cedric Tillman and Jalin Hyatt departing, the cupboard isn't bare. And the reloading effort will speed up if quarterback Joe Milton picks up where he left off in the Orange Bowl. Bru McCoy and Squirrel White should be the go-to receivers for Milton. Right tackle Darnell Wright will be missed. The Volunteers made progress on defense, cutting their per-game total allowed from 29.1 to 22.8 in '22. However, this group has plenty of room to improve a leaky secondary, and the best player in the trenches (end Byron Young) opted to depart for the NFL draft.
3. Kentucky
With Liam Coen returning to call plays, along with the arrival of transfers Devin Leary (from NC State to replace Will Levis at quarterback) and Ray Davis (from Vanderbilt to replace Chris Rodriguez Jr. at running back), Kentucky should have one of the most-improved offenses in the SEC. Tayvion Robinson, Dane Key and Barion Brown also form one of the conference's top trios at receiver. However, the offense won't take off without better play up front (46 sacks allowed). The Wildcats held teams to 19.2 points a game last year, and despite some turnover, coach Mark Stoops and coordinator Brad White will keep this unit among the best in the SEC.
4. South Carolina
The Gamecocks have exceeded preseason expectations in each of coach Shane Beamer's two years at the helm in Columbia. Can South Carolina do it again in '23? The offseason is off to a good start thanks to quarterback Spencer Rattler and receiver Juice Wells passing on the NFL. The hire of Dowell Loggains as coordinator is a curious decision by Beamer, but the former NFL assistant inherits an offense that was trending up at the end of '22. The play along the line of scrimmage must improve on both sides of the ball. The Gamecocks allowed 31 sacks last year and finished 13th in the SEC against the run. Top cornerback Cam Smith also departed for the NFL.
5. Florida
Billy Napier inherited a roster and program in need of repair and things in Gainesville might get a little worse before they get better in 2023. With the loss of five-star freshman quarterback Jaden Rashada, Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz (19 TDs, 10 INTs in '22) is the front-runner to replace Anthony Richardson at quarterback. In addition to the uncertainty under center, the offensive line is in transition after a couple of contributors transferred, and All-American guard O'Cyrus Torrence departed to the NFL. The Gators do return an effective one-two punch at running back with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson, and receiver Ricky Pearsall passed on the NFL for another season at Florida. The preseason concerns extend to a defense that allowed 28.8 points a game last year and lost key contributors in linebacker Ventrell Miller and lineman Gervon Dexter and safety Rashad Torrence II.
6. Missouri
The Tigers have reached a bowl in each of coach Eli Drinkwitz's three seasons at the helm. But with a 17-19 overall mark in that span, the pressure is building to take this program to the next level. Doing so in '23 will require more from the offense, and Drinkwitz took steps to fix this group by hiring Fresno State assistant Kirby Moore to call plays. The quarterback situation is unsettled with Brady Cook recovering from a shoulder injury and redshirt freshman Sam Horn expected to handle snaps in the spring. Moore needs to find more ways to get receiver Luther Burden more involved, but the offense won't improve without better play up front. Missouri's defense was one of the most-improved groups in the SEC last fall and should remain the strength of this team in '23.
7. Vanderbilt
The Commodores made considerable progress in coach Clark Lea's second year. Can the program take another step forward by getting to a bowl in 2023? Getting to six wins will require marked improvement on a defense that has finished last in the SEC in points allowed in back-to-back years. The loss of standout linebacker Anfernee Orji early to the NFL only adds to Lea's challenge of improvement on this side of the ball. Despite starting two different quarterbacks, Vanderbilt's offense improved its per-game scoring average by just over a touchdown. Quarterback A.J. Swann should be better in Year 2 and Will Sheppard and Jayden McGowan are back at receiver. Running back Ray Davis (1,042 yards) transferred to Kentucky.
West Division
1. Alabama
It's a close call between Alabama and LSU for the No. 1 spot in the early SEC West power rankings. The Tigers are a better team in January, but can the Crimson Tide close the gap with the game in Tuscaloosa next year? Although talent is always high for coach Nick Saban, next season's team won't have quarterback Bryce Young or linebacker Will Anderson Jr. Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson are the front-runners to replace Young under center, which adds to an offense needing better play from its receivers and line. In addition to Anderson's departure to the NFL, coordinator Pete Golding moved took a job at Ole Miss, and the secondary is facing a significant overhaul this offseason. Alabama enters '23 with more question marks than usual, but if the pieces fall into place, this team will be back in the national title mix.
2. LSU
As mentioned above, LSU has a strong case to be ranked No. 1 in the SEC West. Regardless of where the Tigers fall in the early power rankings by any outlet, one thing is clear: LSU is poised to contend for the CFB Playoff in '23. Coach Brian Kelly exceeded all expectations by guiding the Tigers to the SEC Championship Game in '22 and the bulk of the roster is set to return. Jayden Daniels is back at quarterback but could be pushed by Garrett Nussmeier. The receiving corps should rank among the best in the SEC, and after an up-and-down '22 season, the offensive line is likely to be much improved. A defense that held teams to 5.3 yards per play returns freshman star Harold Perkins at linebacker, and Maason Smith is back after missing nearly all of '22 due to a knee injury suffered in the opener. A handful of transfers will also boost this group, especially in the secondary where LSU will see some hefty turnover for the second year in a row.
3. Ole Miss
The Rebels take our early No. 3 spot but little separates the next five teams in the West Division. Scoring points won't be a problem once again for coach Lane Kiffin's group with quarterback Jaxson Dart and running back Quinshon Judkins returning next fall. A solid foundation is in place up front, and Kiffin added a couple of playmakers in the portal at receiver with the arrival of Chris Marshall (Texas A&M) and Tre Harris (Louisiana Tech). If Ole Miss is indeed going to finish third (or higher) in the West, improvement on defense is a must. Kiffin took steps to address this group by bringing in Pete Golding from Alabama to coordinate the defense. After a promising start in '22, the Rebels surrendered 32 points a game in the month of November.
4. Arkansas
With quarterback KJ Jefferson and running back Rocket Sanders returning, Arkansas shouldn't have much trouble putting up points on the scoreboard. But after Jefferson and Sanders is where the concerns begin for coach Sam Pittman. The Razorbacks have a few holes to plug up front, namely in finding a replacement for center Ricky Stromberg. Also, the receiving corps lost its top four weapons and will be counting on a couple of portal additions to play major snaps. Although those areas are concerns, the biggest trouble spot for Pittman is on defense. Arkansas allowed 30.6 points a game in '22 and struggled mightily against the pass. With linebackers Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool gone, and holes to fill up front and in the secondary, new coordinator Travis Williams will be busy this offseason.
5. Mississippi State
The Bulldogs are a tough team to get an early read on. New coach Zach Arnett seems poised to shift the offensive attack from the Air Raid to more of a balanced approach under new play-caller Kevin Barbay. Quarterback Will Rogers is back to pilot the offense, but the scheme shift may create some early transition. Despite receivers Rara Thomas and Tulu Griffin leaving as transfers, Barbay won't lack for skill talent to deploy, including running back Woody Marks and receivers Jaden Walley and Justin Robinson. Arnett's defense quietly finished third in the SEC in fewest yards per play allowed (5.12) in '22. The front should be the strength of this group thanks to linebackers Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson, along with linemen Jordan Davis, Nathan Pickering and Jaden Crumedy returning next fall. However, the secondary is facing some significant turnover. Cornerback Emmanuel Forbes (an All-American in '22) is a big loss on the back end.
6. Texas A&M
This might be too low for a program that's still loaded with talent despite last year's 5-7 record. Former Arkansas head coach Bobby Petrino is set to take over the play-calling duties from coach Jimbo Fisher, which should help the offense take a big step forward. Although this side of the ball massively underachieved in '22, there is no shortage of reasons to be optimistic here. Quarterback Conner Weigman is a rising star, receiver Evan Stewart is already one of the best in the SEC after a standout freshman season, and five-star freshman Rueben Owens is set for a massive workload in '23. A young defensive line had issues against the run (209 yards a game allowed), but the Aggies still limited teams to 21.2 points a game in '22. A couple of additions from the portal should boost a thin cornerback room, and safety Demani Richardson opted to return instead of declaring for the NFL draft.
7. Auburn
The Tigers rank No. 7 here but look for this to be a much-improved team under new coach Hugh Freeze. A standout group of transfers is on its way from the portal, and Freeze has surrounded himself with a good staff, including former Tulsa head coach Philip Montgomery as offensive play-caller. Robby Ashford has the inside track at quarterback after finishing as the team's No. 1 in '22, and Jarquez Hunter (675 yards) should team with USF transfer Brian Battie to form an effective one-two punch out of the backfield. Transfers will be counted upon to rebuild the line. Former Baylor assistant Ron Roberts takes over as defensive coordinator. His first priority is to reload up front to replace Derick Hall and Colby Wooden in the trenches and at linebacker with the departure of Owen Pappoe. The secondary should be a strength for Auburn next year.
