England vs Italy prediction, odds and betting tips

England and Italy will go head-to-head at Wembley Stadium in a crunch Euro 2024 qualifier on Tuesday night.

England vs Italy odds

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⚡ Quick England vs Italy tips

• Over 2.5 goals - 23/20 with bet365
• Jude Bellingham to score or assist - 11/10 with bet365

England vs Italy predictions

England are within touching distance of securing a place at Euro 2024. The Group C leaders have a three-point advantage over Italy and Ukraine in second and third place respectively.

Because those two teams will face each other on matchday eight - the last round of fixtures of the qualification campaign - England will be guaranteed a top-two finish if they pick up all three points on Tuesday.

Gareth Southgate’s side set the tone for their qualification bid in their very first fixture, a 2-1 defeat of Italy in March.

Goals from Declan Rice and Harry Kane gave the Three Lions a 2-0 lead at the interval at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Mateo Retegui halved Italy’s deficit early in the second half, but England held on for the win.

They have not been completely flawless since then - Ukraine picked up a point against England in September - but Southgate’s men are on the cusp of booking a place at next summer’s tournament in Germany.

Even if they were to lose this game against Italy, England would almost certainly qualify for the Euros with a win against either Malta or North Macedonia.

Southgate will still be keen to get over the line as soon as possible, though, and doing so by completing the double over the reigning champions would be a more satisfying route than by thrashing a European minnow like Malta.

England named a rotated team in the 1-0 victory over Australia in a friendly on Friday, and we should see the home team make some changes for the visit of the Azzurri.

This will not be a straightforward assignment but England have what it takes to pick up maximum points in front of their own fans.

📝 England vs Italy betting tips

England should have too much quality for Australia even if they do shuffle their pack ahead of the meeting with Italy.

England to win - 13/20 (bet365)

Italy beat England on penalties in the final of the last edition of the Euros, which was held in several locations across the continent just over two years ago.

That was a fantastic achievement for the Azzurri, who were not among the outright favourites to lift the trophy going into the competition.

But things have not gone overly well since then. Italy missed out on World Cup 2022 after a shock loss to North Macedonia in the play-offs.

And despite a 4-0 thrashing of Malta at the weekend, they are not yet guaranteed a place at Euro 2024.

That was Italy’s second win under Luciano Spalletti, who replaced Roberto Mancini as the national team’s head coach last month.

Italy are the favourites to advance from Group C alongside England, but Ukraine cannot be ruled out yet.

A win at Wembley would give Spalletti’s side some breathing space, but England are in a good place right now and playing at home gives them another advantage.

The likes of Rice, Kane and Jude Bellingham did not feature at all against Australia, so that key trio - as well as the likes of Jordan Pickford and Kyle Walker - should be fresh for the visit of Italy.

Over 2.5 goals - 23/20 (bet365)

It made sense for Southgate to rest some of his regular starters for the game against Australia.

Not only were certain players (like those mentioned above) given the night off, but it gave the England manager a chance to take a look at some of the fringe members of the group.

Given the sheer number of options available, picking an England squad is far from straightforward these days - just witness the near-universal condemnation of Southgate every time he makes his selection.

England are one of the leading contenders to win Euro 2024, but there are still one or two question marks over the defence.

That is something Italy will look to exploit on Tuesday, although it is worth noting that England have conceded only two goals in this qualification campaign.

Still, a draw would not drastically strengthen Italy’s position in Group C - they already have the head-to-head advantage over Ukraine - so there is an incentive for the away team to target the win on Tuesday.

Spalletti is an attack-minded coach by trade and his team are likely to take risks in a bid to pick up a statement win.

That strategy may ultimately backfire given England’s attacking quality, but it should at least produce an entertaining encounter.

Jude Bellingham to score or assist - 11/10 (bet365)

England were by no means at their best against Australia, but it would be a mistake to read too much into a performance in a friendly which saw Southgate choose an unfamiliar XI.

Bellingham is among the players who will be back in the side for Tuesday’s encounter and the Real Madrid man is likely to be in the thick of it.

Bellingham has enjoyed a sensational start to life at the Estadio Santiago Bernabeu, thriving in an advanced role under Carlo Ancelotti.

He does not play in exactly the same position for his country, but the 20-year-old will still be heavily involved in the final third against the Italians.

Given the form he has been in over the last few months, few would bet against Bellingham making an impact here.

📺 How to watch England vs Italy

• Location: Wembley Stadium, London, England.
• Date and time: Tuesday 17 October 2023, 7.45pm.
• How to watch: Channel 4.

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